Green Book December 1997
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Featured Articles
1997 Volatility Update
73 high volatility days YTD (31.6%). Highest volatility year since 1987 and matching 1982.
Bond Market Summary
Long treasuries are still well above the underlying interest rate (real rate of 4%-5%). The inflation outlook remains tame.
Defensive Equity Sectors
For those who are looking to reduce their downside risk, we present potential Defensive Equity Sector Ideas, including Electric Utilities, REITs, Phones, Natural Gas and Value stocks.
Earnings Momentum Inside the S&P 500
Earnings momentum continues to be strong. Small cap earnings are improving significantly, while big cap results remain robust.
Emerging Markets: Bottom Fishing
Emerging market opportunities? Established first bottom fishing investments in Korea and Malaysia in November.
Joke of the Month
This comes from one of the world’s greatest joke meisters, Master Putter, Wils Robinson residing in Plymouth, Minnesota. (Occasionally, one of his jokes is even printable.)
November Mutual Fund Flows
The market fell in the week ending 11/5 and inflows dried up. Then came the surprise. The market rallied, but fund investors stayed on the sidelines.
Playing the Bounce
This once reliable market anomaly seems to have lost its effectiveness. Last four years’ results have been subpar. At this point, we don’t plan to “Play the Bounce”. Market is extended and strategy no longer seems reliable.
Scanning the Markets
Performance rundowns for The Leuthold Group’s equity market sectors ranked by November performance.
The Current Stock Market Environment
After wavering in neutral several weeks, Major Trend Index turned negative November 24...Go to sidelines. Market rallied strongly in November but fund investors uncharacteristically stayed on the sidelines. Is this increased caution or seasonality?
View From the North Country
Employee stock option excesses (continued from last month), different viewpoints on options repricing (also continued from last month) and current updated inflation views.
Worth Noting
New Era investment professionals, crowding onto the money train and a different way to look at the economic impact of bear markets.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- The Current Stock Market Environment
- November Mutual Fund Flows
- Defensive Equity Sectors
- Earnings Momentum Inside the S&P 500
- 1997 Volatility Update
- Worth Noting
- View From the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
1997 Volatility Update
73 high volatility days YTD (31.6%). Highest volatility year since 1987 and matching 1982.
Bond Market Summary
Long treasuries are still well above the underlying interest rate (real rate of 4%-5%). The inflation outlook remains tame.
Defensive Equity Sectors
For those who are looking to reduce their downside risk, we present potential Defensive Equity Sector Ideas, including Electric Utilities, REITs, Phones, Natural Gas and Value stocks.
Earnings Momentum Inside the S&P 500
Earnings momentum continues to be strong. Small cap earnings are improving significantly, while big cap results remain robust.
Emerging Markets: Bottom Fishing
Emerging market opportunities? Established first bottom fishing investments in Korea and Malaysia in November.
Joke of the Month
This comes from one of the world’s greatest joke meisters, Master Putter, Wils Robinson residing in Plymouth, Minnesota. (Occasionally, one of his jokes is even printable.)
November Mutual Fund Flows
The market fell in the week ending 11/5 and inflows dried up. Then came the surprise. The market rallied, but fund investors stayed on the sidelines.
Playing the Bounce
This once reliable market anomaly seems to have lost its effectiveness. Last four years’ results have been subpar. At this point, we don’t plan to “Play the Bounce”. Market is extended and strategy no longer seems reliable.
Scanning the Markets
Performance rundowns for The Leuthold Group’s equity market sectors ranked by November performance.
The Current Stock Market Environment
After wavering in neutral several weeks, Major Trend Index turned negative November 24...Go to sidelines. Market rallied strongly in November but fund investors uncharacteristically stayed on the sidelines. Is this increased caution or seasonality?
View From the North Country
Employee stock option excesses (continued from last month), different viewpoints on options repricing (also continued from last month) and current updated inflation views.
Worth Noting
New Era investment professionals, crowding onto the money train and a different way to look at the economic impact of bear markets.
Stock Market
- The Current Stock Market Environment
- November Mutual Fund Flows
- Defensive Equity Sectors
- Earnings Momentum Inside the S&P 500
- 1997 Volatility Update
- Worth Noting
- View From the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
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