Green Book July 1997
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Featured Articles
1997 Volatility: Indicating a Major Stock Market Transition?
Market volatility 1997 to date well above 1992-1996 levels and also above median levels 1957 to present…characteristic of transition years and bear markets.
Bond Market Summary
Fed may tighten later in the year to slow down economy. Inflation cool, but wage pressures a worry. U.S. rates very competitive with foreign yields.
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
There has been a declining trend in weekly inflows since early January. The strongest seasonal flows are in the first 3 1/2 months of a year (through April 15). 1997’s strongest inflows may now be history.
Goldilocks Economy, Blockbuster Earnings Recovery
Goldilocks economy keeps rolling along, but earnings recovery has been nothing short of spectacular.
Has the Market Lost Technology Leadership?
In 1996, and so far in 1997, the broad based technology move has been breaking down. The relative strength line of the Technology Composite index tells the story.
Joke of the Month
This month's winner was sent in by Peter DeOteris at Weeden, but he was given the joke by Sharad Sethia, who works on the Weeden foreign desk. The Blue Ribbon goes to Sharad, a first time winner.
Major Trend Index Positive…Again
Major Trend now Positive, with ratio of 1.16...Biggest bull market in history rolls on, pushing farther above past valuation extremes. Key client questions on stock market and Major Trend answered.
Putting It In Perspective...A Look At Equity Performance Over Last 15 Years
Last 15 years have been the best 15 year stock performance period ever recorded. Many of today's investors expect this to be the norm. Next 3, 5, 10, or 15 year time periods cannot be expected to rival current returns.
Scanning the Markets
In June, the DJIA and S&P 500 again exerted their dominance, as each outperformed about 70% of the sectors we track. On a YTD basis, these two market indices have now beaten about 80% of the sectors.
View From the North Country
The market mechanism is being increasingly overwhelmed by the sheer size and trading practices of today’s institutional players.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index Positive…Again
- Has the Market Lost Technology Leadership?
- Goldilocks Economy, Blockbuster Earnings Recovery
- Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
- 1997 Volatility: Indicating a Major Stock Market Transition?
- View From the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
1997 Volatility: Indicating a Major Stock Market Transition?
Market volatility 1997 to date well above 1992-1996 levels and also above median levels 1957 to present…characteristic of transition years and bear markets.
Bond Market Summary
Fed may tighten later in the year to slow down economy. Inflation cool, but wage pressures a worry. U.S. rates very competitive with foreign yields.
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
There has been a declining trend in weekly inflows since early January. The strongest seasonal flows are in the first 3 1/2 months of a year (through April 15). 1997’s strongest inflows may now be history.
Goldilocks Economy, Blockbuster Earnings Recovery
Goldilocks economy keeps rolling along, but earnings recovery has been nothing short of spectacular.
Has the Market Lost Technology Leadership?
In 1996, and so far in 1997, the broad based technology move has been breaking down. The relative strength line of the Technology Composite index tells the story.
Joke of the Month
This month's winner was sent in by Peter DeOteris at Weeden, but he was given the joke by Sharad Sethia, who works on the Weeden foreign desk. The Blue Ribbon goes to Sharad, a first time winner.
Major Trend Index Positive…Again
Major Trend now Positive, with ratio of 1.16...Biggest bull market in history rolls on, pushing farther above past valuation extremes. Key client questions on stock market and Major Trend answered.
Putting It In Perspective...A Look At Equity Performance Over Last 15 Years
Last 15 years have been the best 15 year stock performance period ever recorded. Many of today's investors expect this to be the norm. Next 3, 5, 10, or 15 year time periods cannot be expected to rival current returns.
Scanning the Markets
In June, the DJIA and S&P 500 again exerted their dominance, as each outperformed about 70% of the sectors we track. On a YTD basis, these two market indices have now beaten about 80% of the sectors.
View From the North Country
The market mechanism is being increasingly overwhelmed by the sheer size and trading practices of today’s institutional players.
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index Positive…Again
- Has the Market Lost Technology Leadership?
- Goldilocks Economy, Blockbuster Earnings Recovery
- Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
- 1997 Volatility: Indicating a Major Stock Market Transition?
- View From the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Perception for the Professional
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