Green Book February 2017
Trump Inherits Poor ‘Initial Conditions’
“Managing expectations” doesn’t seem like Trump’s style, but in the case of the stock market it might not be a bad idea.
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Featured Articles
Stock Market Observations
The Major Trend Index stabilized in a moderately bullish range during the past several weeks, yet the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category is almost the sole carrier of the bullish torch.
Decline Of The Aristocracy
Veteran market analyst Bob Farrell reminds investors that when parabolic uptrends eventually stop, the next move is never sideways. We don’t know that the Dividend Aristocrats and other bond-like stocks traced out a true parabola into last summer’s peaks, but the ugly aftermath suggests they probably did.
Active Versus Passive Return Drivers: A Year-End Update
Herein we provide a year-end update on the factors we determined were important to the active/passive relationship. We found that the market environment and the success of active managers changed significantly in late 2016.
How Much Cash Is Stashed Overseas?
Tallying the overseas cash pile, predicting how much may be repatriated, and the potential impact on stock performance are challenging undertakings, which require more art than science.
Factor Investing And The Importance Of Market Cycles
While factors do offer excess return they are by no means winners in all seasons. Our findings show that factor returns are cyclical, volatile, and unstable over time.
Trump Trade—Pause Before More Gain
The market seemed hesitant to push the Trump trade any farther as new policies have focused on trade renegotiation and immigration, the less positive part of the policy package.
Up/Down Earnings: Ratio Springs Above Average
Building on the momentum of the past few quarters, our “one-month” Q4 ratio sits comfortably above its historical mean for the first time in seven quarters.
Hotels & Leisure Travels To Near Top Of Scores
We take a deeper dive into Hotels & Leisure’s GS Score and fundamental industry drivers to explore what the group has to offer above and beyond its membership in the “Trump Trade” trend.
S&P 500: Another Month, Another Record High
As we get further into the era of Trump, it will be interesting to see how the market balances anti-immigration and anti-free trade policies with deregulation and tax reform.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Active Versus Passive Return Drivers: A Year-End Update
- Trump Inherits Poor ‘Initial Conditions’
- Stock Market Observations
- “Trailing” EPS Revisited
- Decline Of The Aristocracy
- What Comes After The Momentum Meltdown?
- How Much Cash Is Stashed Overseas?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
- Up/Down Earnings: Ratio Springs Above Average
- Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
- Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
- S&P 500: Another Month, Another Record High
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Stock Market Observations
The Major Trend Index stabilized in a moderately bullish range during the past several weeks, yet the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category is almost the sole carrier of the bullish torch.
Decline Of The Aristocracy
Veteran market analyst Bob Farrell reminds investors that when parabolic uptrends eventually stop, the next move is never sideways. We don’t know that the Dividend Aristocrats and other bond-like stocks traced out a true parabola into last summer’s peaks, but the ugly aftermath suggests they probably did.
Active Versus Passive Return Drivers: A Year-End Update
Herein we provide a year-end update on the factors we determined were important to the active/passive relationship. We found that the market environment and the success of active managers changed significantly in late 2016.
How Much Cash Is Stashed Overseas?
Tallying the overseas cash pile, predicting how much may be repatriated, and the potential impact on stock performance are challenging undertakings, which require more art than science.
Factor Investing And The Importance Of Market Cycles
While factors do offer excess return they are by no means winners in all seasons. Our findings show that factor returns are cyclical, volatile, and unstable over time.
Trump Trade—Pause Before More Gain
The market seemed hesitant to push the Trump trade any farther as new policies have focused on trade renegotiation and immigration, the less positive part of the policy package.
Up/Down Earnings: Ratio Springs Above Average
Building on the momentum of the past few quarters, our “one-month” Q4 ratio sits comfortably above its historical mean for the first time in seven quarters.
Hotels & Leisure Travels To Near Top Of Scores
We take a deeper dive into Hotels & Leisure’s GS Score and fundamental industry drivers to explore what the group has to offer above and beyond its membership in the “Trump Trade” trend.
S&P 500: Another Month, Another Record High
As we get further into the era of Trump, it will be interesting to see how the market balances anti-immigration and anti-free trade policies with deregulation and tax reform.
Stock Market
- Active Versus Passive Return Drivers: A Year-End Update
- Trump Inherits Poor ‘Initial Conditions’
- Stock Market Observations
- “Trailing” EPS Revisited
- Decline Of The Aristocracy
- What Comes After The Momentum Meltdown?
- How Much Cash Is Stashed Overseas?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
- Up/Down Earnings: Ratio Springs Above Average
- Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
- Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
- S&P 500: Another Month, Another Record High
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
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