Green Book May 1995
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Featured Articles
"Paid to Play"
Evaluating relative sector attractiveness and an explanation of the factors incorporated in our Sector Selection Scores, a multi-factored disciple incorporating 28 elements to aid in strategic sector decision making.
Adding Defense Contractors to the “Paid to Play” Portfolio
With U.S. spending on defense now at an all-time low and no big potential wars on the horizon, why would we want to own these company stocks?
Bond Market Summary
Weight of the evidence bond market Major Trend still negative this month. Weak dollar, commodity inflation warnings, combined with diminishing investor demand helped to keep our Index in negative territory.
Focus on Fund Flows
The tidal wave of equity mutual fund cash flows continues to roll in. “Cash” percentage in growth oriented equity funds hit a 12-year low. New equity supply may now about match mutual fund cash inflows. Cart or horse? Do the mutual fund cash flows drive the market or does the market drive them?
Joke of the Month
There was not much competition this month, just old jokes. However, Walt Deemer is one of the very few people in the universe who makes up his own jokes...but his stock market strategies have been far better than his jokes.
Leuthold Major Trend Guide Malfunctioning?
Equities now at 24%—below normal minimums. Valuations still look excessive. Major Trend improved, but still negative. Is it 1987 revisited, or a “new era”? It could be different this time, for a while.
Normalizing Earnings...Decycling and Determining Underlying Earnings Power
Earnings normalization of some type is essential when making historical relative P/E comparisons. The more cyclical the earnings of a market index (or an individual company) the more important normalizing or smoothing becomes.
Scanning the Markets
The DJIA continued to push to new highs during the last month, rising 3.9%. This brings the year to date performance for the DJIA to +12.7%.
Short Term Stock Market View
Our 100% short sale program has been posting strong positive returns in recent weeks, even though the market averages have continued to edge higher. This often indicates a general market decline is close at hand.
View from the North Country
Soft Landing? Better fasten your seat belts...the odds are against it. Is the sun setting on the U.S. dollar as a world reserve currency? Also, how gold is still disappointing its fans and a look at one of the ways your Social Security tax is spent.
Worth Noting
“Polling the pros” in April, adjusting stock market dividend yields for “buybacks”, mutual fund flows, looking beneath the Finished Goods PPI, and the possibility of rising inflation and interest rates.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Short Term Stock Market View
- Leuthold Major Trend Guide Malfunctioning?
- Worth Noting
- Normalizing Earnings...Decycling and Determining Underlying Earnings Power
- View from the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
"Paid to Play"
Evaluating relative sector attractiveness and an explanation of the factors incorporated in our Sector Selection Scores, a multi-factored disciple incorporating 28 elements to aid in strategic sector decision making.
Adding Defense Contractors to the “Paid to Play” Portfolio
With U.S. spending on defense now at an all-time low and no big potential wars on the horizon, why would we want to own these company stocks?
Bond Market Summary
Weight of the evidence bond market Major Trend still negative this month. Weak dollar, commodity inflation warnings, combined with diminishing investor demand helped to keep our Index in negative territory.
Focus on Fund Flows
The tidal wave of equity mutual fund cash flows continues to roll in. “Cash” percentage in growth oriented equity funds hit a 12-year low. New equity supply may now about match mutual fund cash inflows. Cart or horse? Do the mutual fund cash flows drive the market or does the market drive them?
Joke of the Month
There was not much competition this month, just old jokes. However, Walt Deemer is one of the very few people in the universe who makes up his own jokes...but his stock market strategies have been far better than his jokes.
Leuthold Major Trend Guide Malfunctioning?
Equities now at 24%—below normal minimums. Valuations still look excessive. Major Trend improved, but still negative. Is it 1987 revisited, or a “new era”? It could be different this time, for a while.
Normalizing Earnings...Decycling and Determining Underlying Earnings Power
Earnings normalization of some type is essential when making historical relative P/E comparisons. The more cyclical the earnings of a market index (or an individual company) the more important normalizing or smoothing becomes.
Scanning the Markets
The DJIA continued to push to new highs during the last month, rising 3.9%. This brings the year to date performance for the DJIA to +12.7%.
Short Term Stock Market View
Our 100% short sale program has been posting strong positive returns in recent weeks, even though the market averages have continued to edge higher. This often indicates a general market decline is close at hand.
View from the North Country
Soft Landing? Better fasten your seat belts...the odds are against it. Is the sun setting on the U.S. dollar as a world reserve currency? Also, how gold is still disappointing its fans and a look at one of the ways your Social Security tax is spent.
Worth Noting
“Polling the pros” in April, adjusting stock market dividend yields for “buybacks”, mutual fund flows, looking beneath the Finished Goods PPI, and the possibility of rising inflation and interest rates.
Stock Market
- Short Term Stock Market View
- Leuthold Major Trend Guide Malfunctioning?
- Worth Noting
- Normalizing Earnings...Decycling and Determining Underlying Earnings Power
- View from the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
