Green Book July 2010
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Featured Articles
A Non-Economic Bear?
A market decline much beyond 20% could be labeled a “non-economic” bear market. Outstanding feature of past “non-economic” bear markets has been their brevity.
Are Public Pensions The Next Bubble?
Matt Paschke discusses how public pension funds are approaching huge hurdles as state and municipal governments have promised more than they are able to provide.
Factor Performance Shows Flight To Quality
Momentum cannot sustain itself, as multiple trends reversed over last two months. Profitability focus has returned to the marketplace as risk aversion grows.
Inflation Tame
Looking ahead to 2011, we are keeping a close eye on Housing, Food and Wages, which all could be bottoming out.
Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit
A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles.
Major Trend Negative… Paring Stock Exposure
Major Trend Index has big decline in early July, bringing ratio all the way down to negative ground.
Risk Aversion and “Episodic” Factor Returns: Investors Favoring Conservative Characteristics
We expect risk appetites to remain low and investors to continue to reward conservative stock characteristics over the next 3-6 months.
Stock Market Reactions In Rising Tax Environment
Taxes are slated to go up as Bush tax cuts expire. History shows that selling increases in anticipation of higher capital gains taxes. Stock performance also does better in anticipation of lower tax environments than higher.
Stocks And Economy Joined At The Hip… For Now
Economic indicators are hypersensitive to even small changes in the data, and investors are hypersensitive to the indicators themselves.
Will the Disaster in the Gulf Present an Opportunity for Alternative Energy Stocks?
In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, David Kurzman, manager of the “Leuthold Global Clean Technology” mutual fund provides his take on whether the Gulf oil spill will present any real opportunities for alternative energy stocks.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Major Trend Negative… Paring Stock Exposure
- A Non-Economic Bear?
- Stocks And Economy Joined At The Hip… For Now
- Stock Market Reactions In Rising Tax Environment
- Are Public Pensions The Next Bubble?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Quant
- Factor Performance Shows Flight To Quality
- Risk Aversion and “Episodic” Factor Returns: Investors Favoring Conservative Characteristics
Inflation Watch
A Non-Economic Bear?
A market decline much beyond 20% could be labeled a “non-economic” bear market. Outstanding feature of past “non-economic” bear markets has been their brevity.
Are Public Pensions The Next Bubble?
Matt Paschke discusses how public pension funds are approaching huge hurdles as state and municipal governments have promised more than they are able to provide.
Factor Performance Shows Flight To Quality
Momentum cannot sustain itself, as multiple trends reversed over last two months. Profitability focus has returned to the marketplace as risk aversion grows.
Inflation Tame
Looking ahead to 2011, we are keeping a close eye on Housing, Food and Wages, which all could be bottoming out.
Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit
A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles.
Major Trend Negative… Paring Stock Exposure
Major Trend Index has big decline in early July, bringing ratio all the way down to negative ground.
Risk Aversion and “Episodic” Factor Returns: Investors Favoring Conservative Characteristics
We expect risk appetites to remain low and investors to continue to reward conservative stock characteristics over the next 3-6 months.
Stock Market Reactions In Rising Tax Environment
Taxes are slated to go up as Bush tax cuts expire. History shows that selling increases in anticipation of higher capital gains taxes. Stock performance also does better in anticipation of lower tax environments than higher.
Stocks And Economy Joined At The Hip… For Now
Economic indicators are hypersensitive to even small changes in the data, and investors are hypersensitive to the indicators themselves.
Will the Disaster in the Gulf Present an Opportunity for Alternative Energy Stocks?
In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, David Kurzman, manager of the “Leuthold Global Clean Technology” mutual fund provides his take on whether the Gulf oil spill will present any real opportunities for alternative energy stocks.
Stock Market
- Major Trend Negative… Paring Stock Exposure
- A Non-Economic Bear?
- Stocks And Economy Joined At The Hip… For Now
- Stock Market Reactions In Rising Tax Environment
- Are Public Pensions The Next Bubble?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Quant
- Factor Performance Shows Flight To Quality
- Risk Aversion and “Episodic” Factor Returns: Investors Favoring Conservative Characteristics
Inflation Watch
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