Green Book May 2019
Tariff Man Tampers With Toppy Market
Beware of those who write about stock market history, especially when they speak of cause and effect. The truth is that the “why” can never be known.
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Featured Articles
Bull Markets Are In The Eye Of The Beholder
The market’s four-month recovery from the brink of a bear was completed in April, and the ten-year-old bull looks better than ever against all of its post-World War II competitors.
Mixed Monetary Messages
Confidence in the U.S. economy’s health reached a new peak with the April employment report, with a blowout number for nonfarm payroll coinciding with a soft wage print.
It’s A Confidence Game
U.S. stock funds have seen heavy outflows despite the market’s YTD gains of 15-20%, once again reviving the tired characterization of this bull market as the “most hated in history.”
AANA: The Good And The Bad
Large Cap U.S. Technology has been the place to be this year, but even an “unmanaged” portfolio with a variety of assets has fared well so far in 2019.
Signs Of Margin Pressure Ahead
Banks’ lending standards for C&I loans (typically to large businesses) tightened quite a bit in Q1, which bodes ill for both investment and overall economic growth going forward.
Information Technology Sector Now Highest Rated
For the first time since late 2017, Information Technology moved into the top-rated spot. This sector has historically produced especially strong results during periods after which it took over the #1 seat.
Bank Loan CEFs: Double Leverage Implies Higher Risk
In prior publications we’ve written about corporate leverage, which has risen to an alarming level, and we’re concerned that this could be a trigger for the next market downturn.
Signs Of Spring For Financials
Signs of spring are popping up everywhere in the Financials sector. S&P Financials was easily the top- performing sector in April and several sub-industries have been bubbling higher in our Group Selection discipline.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Bank Loan CEFs: Double Leverage Implies Higher Risk
- Tariff Man Tampers With Toppy Market
- Divergence, Danger, And Delusion
- Adding EM On A Rent-To-Own Basis
- Rally Like It’s 1999
- Bull Markets Are In The Eye Of The Beholder
- Mixed Monetary Messages
- It’s A Confidence Game
- Commodity Stocks: More Of The Same
- AANA: The Good And The Bad
- Where Are Yields Headed? Look In The Mirror!
- Sell *Beta* In May
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Bull Markets Are In The Eye Of The Beholder
The market’s four-month recovery from the brink of a bear was completed in April, and the ten-year-old bull looks better than ever against all of its post-World War II competitors.
Mixed Monetary Messages
Confidence in the U.S. economy’s health reached a new peak with the April employment report, with a blowout number for nonfarm payroll coinciding with a soft wage print.
It’s A Confidence Game
U.S. stock funds have seen heavy outflows despite the market’s YTD gains of 15-20%, once again reviving the tired characterization of this bull market as the “most hated in history.”
AANA: The Good And The Bad
Large Cap U.S. Technology has been the place to be this year, but even an “unmanaged” portfolio with a variety of assets has fared well so far in 2019.
Signs Of Margin Pressure Ahead
Banks’ lending standards for C&I loans (typically to large businesses) tightened quite a bit in Q1, which bodes ill for both investment and overall economic growth going forward.
Information Technology Sector Now Highest Rated
For the first time since late 2017, Information Technology moved into the top-rated spot. This sector has historically produced especially strong results during periods after which it took over the #1 seat.
Bank Loan CEFs: Double Leverage Implies Higher Risk
In prior publications we’ve written about corporate leverage, which has risen to an alarming level, and we’re concerned that this could be a trigger for the next market downturn.
Signs Of Spring For Financials
Signs of spring are popping up everywhere in the Financials sector. S&P Financials was easily the top- performing sector in April and several sub-industries have been bubbling higher in our Group Selection discipline.
Stock Market
- Bank Loan CEFs: Double Leverage Implies Higher Risk
- Tariff Man Tampers With Toppy Market
- Divergence, Danger, And Delusion
- Adding EM On A Rent-To-Own Basis
- Rally Like It’s 1999
- Bull Markets Are In The Eye Of The Beholder
- Mixed Monetary Messages
- It’s A Confidence Game
- Commodity Stocks: More Of The Same
- AANA: The Good And The Bad
- Where Are Yields Headed? Look In The Mirror!
- Sell *Beta* In May
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Perception for the Professional
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