Green Book April 2007

2007 Outlook: CPI Accelerating In Second Half, But Economy Slowing

Still believe interest rates could be headed higher in 2007. While the economy does seem to be slowing and a recession is a possibility by early 2008, we expect the twelve month rate of inflation to accelerate in the second half of 2007.

Bond Sentiment: Still A Short-Term Bullish Pillar

We see little fundamental appeal in bonds at current yield levels, but would not be surprised if yields still drifted a bit lower in the next month or two—if only because so many players are positioned for the opposite.

Cash Acquisitions And Their Effect On Equity Supply

Cash acquisitions shrinking U.S. equity share base.

Inflation Outlook: Worrisome

CPI and PPI monthly inflation kicked up a bit with February readings and could  do so again when March results are released.

March Market Action

The stock market spent much of March trying to climb out of the hole dug back on February 27th. But to date, the primary indexes are still below late-February’s cyclical highs.

Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Fund Flow Slips In March

The numbers tell us that investors have clearly begun to diversify into other asset classes and that the U.S. stock market is no longer the only game in town.

View From The North Country

Steve discusses his opinion of market cycle sin this month’s “View From The North Country”. He is a believer in cycles, but not so sure about rhythmic cycles. Also, his thoughts on the importance of market history.