Green Book January 2018
Kicking Off The Year... With A Good Year
We’re not sure which is the more surprising development: that a critical valuation measure has topped an historic extreme, or that we’ve remained bullish as it’s done so.
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Featured Articles
Asset Allocation: Buy Strength Or Weakness?
We are contrarians at heart, but learned quickly that successful contrarian investing is far more complicated than simply buying assets that are down the most in price.
Industry Group Dreams And Nightmares
For nearly three decades The Leuthold Group has tracked hypothetical portfolios composed of the previous year’s industry group “Dreams” and “Nightmares.”
Economic Performance: Powerful Factor For Country Rotation
In previous studies, we looked at two classic factors for employing a country rotation strategy: valuation and momentum.
Four Divergences—A Steepening Correction
While we still believe flattening is the more likely scenario over the medium term, we do feel the recent flattening move is a bit overdone and there are several divergences that suggest a short-term steepening correction is in store.
Consumer Discretionary Back On Top
Of the 110 industries in our framework, the top seven are all Consumer Discretionary.
S&P 500: Can You Hear The Steel Drums?
No volatility and only one (barely) down month—it was easy living for the S&P 500 in 2017. It was also a top-heavy year for the index. The largest five firms: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB, and GOOG accounted for nearly a quarter of the index’s gain.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Kicking Off The Year... With A Good Year
- “Don’t Just Do Something, Stand There!”
- Strength Begets Strength
- Estimating The Upside?
- Pressure Points?
- A Long-Term Take On Sentiment
- Keep An Eye On “Relative” Inflation
- Asset Allocation: Buy Strength Or Weakness?
- Bridesmaid Strategy: Track Record
- Bridesmaid Strategy: Risk & Return
- Bridesmaid Strategy: Picking The Year’s Best Asset
- Bridesmaid Strategy: For Equity Managers
- Bridesmaid Strategy: Sector Track Record
- Bridesmaid Strategy: A Value Alternative
- Bridesmaid Strategy: Low P/E Sector: Annual Results
- Industry Group Dreams And Nightmares
- Economic Performance: Powerful Factor For Country Rotation
- 2017 Was A Good Year For Playing The Bounce
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Four Divergences—A Steepening Correction
- 2018 Time Cycle—Beware A Fall Correction
- Risk Aversion Index: New “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
- Earnings Momentum
- Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
- Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
- S&P 500: Can You Hear The Steel Drums?
Portfolios
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Asset Allocation: Buy Strength Or Weakness?
We are contrarians at heart, but learned quickly that successful contrarian investing is far more complicated than simply buying assets that are down the most in price.
Industry Group Dreams And Nightmares
For nearly three decades The Leuthold Group has tracked hypothetical portfolios composed of the previous year’s industry group “Dreams” and “Nightmares.”
Economic Performance: Powerful Factor For Country Rotation
In previous studies, we looked at two classic factors for employing a country rotation strategy: valuation and momentum.
Four Divergences—A Steepening Correction
While we still believe flattening is the more likely scenario over the medium term, we do feel the recent flattening move is a bit overdone and there are several divergences that suggest a short-term steepening correction is in store.
Consumer Discretionary Back On Top
Of the 110 industries in our framework, the top seven are all Consumer Discretionary.
S&P 500: Can You Hear The Steel Drums?
No volatility and only one (barely) down month—it was easy living for the S&P 500 in 2017. It was also a top-heavy year for the index. The largest five firms: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB, and GOOG accounted for nearly a quarter of the index’s gain.
Stock Market
- Kicking Off The Year... With A Good Year
- “Don’t Just Do Something, Stand There!”
- Strength Begets Strength
- Estimating The Upside?
- Pressure Points?
- A Long-Term Take On Sentiment
- Keep An Eye On “Relative” Inflation
- Asset Allocation: Buy Strength Or Weakness?
- Bridesmaid Strategy: Track Record
- Bridesmaid Strategy: Risk & Return
- Bridesmaid Strategy: Picking The Year’s Best Asset
- Bridesmaid Strategy: For Equity Managers
- Bridesmaid Strategy: Sector Track Record
- Bridesmaid Strategy: A Value Alternative
- Bridesmaid Strategy: Low P/E Sector: Annual Results
- Industry Group Dreams And Nightmares
- Economic Performance: Powerful Factor For Country Rotation
- 2017 Was A Good Year For Playing The Bounce
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Four Divergences—A Steepening Correction
- 2018 Time Cycle—Beware A Fall Correction
- Risk Aversion Index: New “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
- Earnings Momentum
- Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
- Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
- S&P 500: Can You Hear The Steel Drums?
Portfolios
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Perception for the Professional
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