Green Book August 1998
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Featured Articles
A Different Spin on Liquidity
Cash, as a percent of the NYSE market value, has never been lower.
Asian Emerging Markets...Adding To Unconventional Portfolio Holdings
This month, we plan to add the First Philippines Fund to our Unconventional Portfolio.
Big Cap Dominance…More Striking After July Turmoil
The second half of 1998 got off with a thud for most managers. It is becoming increasingly evident that we are in a two tiered market—the only positive relative performance is from the largest of the big cap “growth” stocks.
Day To Day Stock Market Volatility
July started with a bang, but wound up a dud.
Growth...Recession Resistant - The Time Is Right
A fresh Recession Resistant screen uncovered 68 stocks - big cap companies whose earnings have held up well during the past three recessions.
How Long Can This Go On?
Q4 1991 through Q2 1995, earnings growth and the stock market were in synch... not anymore.
Inside the Bond Market
Bond market still ahead of itself, fueled by flight to credit quality...But money flows could slow, should Asia outlook improve, or Japan act decisively.
Insider Block Measures—An Update
Insider big block transactions…still selling like mad.
Is 1998 Like 1987?
Comparing 1987 versus 1997 and 1998 Advance/Decline lines: 1987’s actually didn’t look nearly as bad as today’s.
Joke of the Month
This comes from the Joke Meister, Wilson Cameron Robinson residing in Plymouth, Minnesota. This makes “Wils” a four time Blue Ribbon winner.
July Mutual Fund Flows
According to the latest ICI report, fund managers investing in U.S equities were hoarding cash during the month of June. Percentage of assets rises to 4.1%, but still near all-time lows.
Major Trend Back to Negative
Major Trend back to Negative...Both Asset Allocation Portfolios shifted to their most defensive posture ever. Steve's judgements and opinions on major stock market positives and negatives.
Oversupply of Small Cap Orphans?
More than 500 new companies were added to the Russell 2000 at the mid-year index revision. Those issues deleted from the Russell indices become “orphans”.
Scanning the Markets
In all, only 10 sectors posted gains during July...including a strong 3.0% gain in Cable.
Small Caps Relatively Cheap, But….
Small caps cheap relative to big caps, but neither is cheap on absolute basis...Unweighted to weighted P/E comparison at record discount.
View From the North Country
Will the Asian Recession go global? “Gridlock is good", per a Jim Bianco study. Lottery mania, its history in the U.S., and potential effects on society. Also, the past suppression of women’s humor and “Northworst Airlines”.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Big Cap Dominance…More Striking After July Turmoil
- Major Trend Back to Negative
- Small Caps Relatively Cheap, But….
- How Long Can This Go On?
- July Mutual Fund Flows
- Insider Block Measures—An Update
- Is 1998 Like 1987?
- A Different Spin on Liquidity
- Day To Day Stock Market Volatility
- Oversupply of Small Cap Orphans?
- View From the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
A Different Spin on Liquidity
Cash, as a percent of the NYSE market value, has never been lower.
Asian Emerging Markets...Adding To Unconventional Portfolio Holdings
This month, we plan to add the First Philippines Fund to our Unconventional Portfolio.
Big Cap Dominance…More Striking After July Turmoil
The second half of 1998 got off with a thud for most managers. It is becoming increasingly evident that we are in a two tiered market—the only positive relative performance is from the largest of the big cap “growth” stocks.
Day To Day Stock Market Volatility
July started with a bang, but wound up a dud.
Growth...Recession Resistant - The Time Is Right
A fresh Recession Resistant screen uncovered 68 stocks - big cap companies whose earnings have held up well during the past three recessions.
How Long Can This Go On?
Q4 1991 through Q2 1995, earnings growth and the stock market were in synch... not anymore.
Inside the Bond Market
Bond market still ahead of itself, fueled by flight to credit quality...But money flows could slow, should Asia outlook improve, or Japan act decisively.
Insider Block Measures—An Update
Insider big block transactions…still selling like mad.
Is 1998 Like 1987?
Comparing 1987 versus 1997 and 1998 Advance/Decline lines: 1987’s actually didn’t look nearly as bad as today’s.
Joke of the Month
This comes from the Joke Meister, Wilson Cameron Robinson residing in Plymouth, Minnesota. This makes “Wils” a four time Blue Ribbon winner.
July Mutual Fund Flows
According to the latest ICI report, fund managers investing in U.S equities were hoarding cash during the month of June. Percentage of assets rises to 4.1%, but still near all-time lows.
Major Trend Back to Negative
Major Trend back to Negative...Both Asset Allocation Portfolios shifted to their most defensive posture ever. Steve's judgements and opinions on major stock market positives and negatives.
Oversupply of Small Cap Orphans?
More than 500 new companies were added to the Russell 2000 at the mid-year index revision. Those issues deleted from the Russell indices become “orphans”.
Scanning the Markets
In all, only 10 sectors posted gains during July...including a strong 3.0% gain in Cable.
Small Caps Relatively Cheap, But….
Small caps cheap relative to big caps, but neither is cheap on absolute basis...Unweighted to weighted P/E comparison at record discount.
View From the North Country
Will the Asian Recession go global? “Gridlock is good", per a Jim Bianco study. Lottery mania, its history in the U.S., and potential effects on society. Also, the past suppression of women’s humor and “Northworst Airlines”.
Stock Market
- Big Cap Dominance…More Striking After July Turmoil
- Major Trend Back to Negative
- Small Caps Relatively Cheap, But….
- How Long Can This Go On?
- July Mutual Fund Flows
- Insider Block Measures—An Update
- Is 1998 Like 1987?
- A Different Spin on Liquidity
- Day To Day Stock Market Volatility
- Oversupply of Small Cap Orphans?
- View From the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Perception for the Professional
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Sector Navigator
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