Green Book October 1986
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
The bond market worked lower in the first half of September but rallied later in the month, cutting losses for the month in half. Short rates were little changed during September.
Circles and Cycles: The Current Index Fund Boom
Herein, we examine the new surge of indexing on the part of pension funds, explaining why we think it may be just the wrong time to be abandoning active investment management. While ultimately most equity managers can be expected to underperform the averages, the timing of the current rush to indexing may be all wrong. Shades of the late 1970’s!
Gold Continues to Run
Something strange is occurring in the gold market and it is not related to inflation. We have been discussing this for the last two months and here is an update for those interested. I continue to believe most portfolios should own some gold.
Growth Versus Cyclical
For two months, cyclical stocks have been turning in some very strong relative performance while growth stocks have been fading. This month, we take a close look at this surprising shift. At this point, we still are not at all sure it is for real.
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index improved somewhat in September but remains in negative territory. The strong September down move was no surprise, it appears that a major cyclical market top is in progress. Portfolio “Insurance” played a significant role in the September decline and it could play the reverse roll in a future market rally.
Leaders and Laagers in September
Only two of the thirty-five equity sectors we regularly track recorded plus signs for the month. The S&P 500 was down 7.7% in the quarter, the DJIA off 6.5%. By the looks of our sector performance distribution, I would venture to say most professionals, maybe 70% or more, failed to beat the S&P.
New Airline Position
We are establishing a new 6% position in the airlines this month. I just heard five Wall Street firms put out new buy recommendations today. Let us hope the crowd is not always wrong.
View from the North Country
You all have experienced the frustrations of investment committee meetings. Read how Rosenberg Capital Management approaches group decision making. It Ain't Like the Good Old Days... U.S. dominance in the worldwide economic scene has greatly diminished. Aussie update: buy bonds and see the movie.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View from the North Country
- Inside the Stock Market
- Growth Versus Cyclical
- Circles and Cycles: The Current Index Fund Boom
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Bond Market Summary
The bond market worked lower in the first half of September but rallied later in the month, cutting losses for the month in half. Short rates were little changed during September.
Circles and Cycles: The Current Index Fund Boom
Herein, we examine the new surge of indexing on the part of pension funds, explaining why we think it may be just the wrong time to be abandoning active investment management. While ultimately most equity managers can be expected to underperform the averages, the timing of the current rush to indexing may be all wrong. Shades of the late 1970’s!
Gold Continues to Run
Something strange is occurring in the gold market and it is not related to inflation. We have been discussing this for the last two months and here is an update for those interested. I continue to believe most portfolios should own some gold.
Growth Versus Cyclical
For two months, cyclical stocks have been turning in some very strong relative performance while growth stocks have been fading. This month, we take a close look at this surprising shift. At this point, we still are not at all sure it is for real.
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index improved somewhat in September but remains in negative territory. The strong September down move was no surprise, it appears that a major cyclical market top is in progress. Portfolio “Insurance” played a significant role in the September decline and it could play the reverse roll in a future market rally.
Leaders and Laagers in September
Only two of the thirty-five equity sectors we regularly track recorded plus signs for the month. The S&P 500 was down 7.7% in the quarter, the DJIA off 6.5%. By the looks of our sector performance distribution, I would venture to say most professionals, maybe 70% or more, failed to beat the S&P.
New Airline Position
We are establishing a new 6% position in the airlines this month. I just heard five Wall Street firms put out new buy recommendations today. Let us hope the crowd is not always wrong.
View from the North Country
You all have experienced the frustrations of investment committee meetings. Read how Rosenberg Capital Management approaches group decision making. It Ain't Like the Good Old Days... U.S. dominance in the worldwide economic scene has greatly diminished. Aussie update: buy bonds and see the movie.
Stock Market
- View from the North Country
- Inside the Stock Market
- Growth Versus Cyclical
- Circles and Cycles: The Current Index Fund Boom
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
