Green Book September 2020

The Tab For “Freebies” Keeps Escalating

There’s an underlying faith that bureaucrats at the Fed and Treasury will keep good and bad businesses, alike, afloat—and overvalued. We’re still trying to unearth a single historical analog that merits such confidence.

Foreign Stocks Party Like It’s The “2010s”

The most likely catalysts for improved relative performance of foreign stocks would be: (1) a bear market; (2) a recession; and, (3) a major downturn in the U.S. dollar. This year has supplied all three, yet the relative strength ratios of most foreign equity composites continue to grind lower as if it’s “business as usual.”

“Reliable” Health Care And The Presidential Election

Health Care has been resilient this year, but will that continue in the run-up to the presidential election?  We look at the performance of the Attractively-ranked industry groups and how they have historically performed leading up to an election and post-election. 

A New Proposal To The Fed: Buy Bank Stocks!

While most economic numbers have been positive, the fly-in-the-ointment was the latest Senior Loan Officers’ Survey. Banks have tightened their lending standards across the board.

Research Preview: Not Your Parents’ “Discretionary”

The combination of rebounding economic activity and a surging enchantment with mega-cap growth stocks is pressing investors to make an important tactical call: whether or not to exit some highfliers and shift assets to sectors with more cyclical exposure.

An Unspoken Dilemma

Need more proof that we really are contrarians? While others were celebrating new all-time highs in the S&P 500 during August, we were wringing our hands over a disturbing new all-time low.

Earnings’ Lost Relevance

Can Money Growth Trump All Else?

In 2019 and 2020, our regard for time-tested valuation tools resulted in tactical portfolios being underexposed to stocks during a pair of tremendous rallies. Now, the critique is that we don’t appreciate the brilliance of today’s policymakers and their miraculous ability to pivot just when the stocks (and, in the latest case, the economy) need it most.