Green Book May 2008
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Featured Articles
Technology: Applying Positive Thinking To Our 9th-Rated Sector
Is it time to buy Technology? This month's “Of Special Interest” examines the sector's merits and finds that while there are signs of improvement, it is too soon to make a big move here.
April Market Action
Relief finally came to Wall Street, not in the form of rebate checks or rate cuts, but from the strongest monthly returns since December 2003.
Economic Watch
Even though government statistics do not yet indicate a declining quarter of real GDP growth, we believe we are, in fact, in the grip of a recession.
Industrial Metals: Now Over-Mined?
Waiting for the curtain to fall on Industrial Metals, we recap the “three acts” and throw in a time-tested contrarian indicator to boot.
Inflation Falls During/After Recessions
Longer term, we are concerned about the rising trend of food and energy inflation.
Inflation Understated Not Overstated
There is political pressure to keep inflation low, minimizing COLA (cost of living adjustments) and Social Security costs. Low inflation also helps to keep interest rates down, which keeps government interest payments as low as possible.
Major Trend Edges Up To Neutral In April
Major Trend Index improved to Neutral in early April and clinging there now. Are we seeing a delayed bear market rally? Examining what could come next.
Morose On Main Street… So Why Isn’t The Smart Money Worried?
Consumer confidence levels have sunk to five year lows. Could this be a bullish omen for the markets?
NASDAQ Ten Year ACR Now At An All-Time Low...And Heading Lower
Demoralizing long term returns factor into why the investing public has avoided the U.S. stock market during the last several years — even during the bull market.
Short Selling: From Un-American To All-American
It doesn’t seem too long ago when short sellers were vilified for bringing down viable public companies, and the appropriate punishment for short selling was deemed to be a public caning.
The GDP Report You Didn’t Read
We’re back on form after last month’s praise of government economists... questioning the value of the GDP Deflator.
What Early Cycle Leadership Looks Like… An Historical Perspective
In the spirit of historical market research, we thought it would be a good time to revisit which industry groups perform best from bear market lows.
Worth Noting... A Scary Top Ten List
Former Morgan Stanley strategist Byron Wein—now at Pequot Capital—publishes an annual list of potential market and economic “surprises” that has become a must read for institutional investors. Along the same lines, Wired magazine listed ten potential threats to what it calls the “Long Boom”. (Warning: This list might make The Leuthold Group look cheerful).
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Major Trend Edges Up To Neutral In April
- The GDP Report You Didn’t Read
- Industrial Metals: Now Over-Mined?
- Short Selling: From Un-American To All-American
- Worth Noting... A Scary Top Ten List
- April Market Action
- Morose On Main Street… So Why Isn’t The Smart Money Worried?
- NASDAQ Ten Year ACR Now At An All-Time Low...And Heading Lower
- What Early Cycle Leadership Looks Like… An Historical Perspective
- Economic Watch
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Inflation Watch
Technology: Applying Positive Thinking To Our 9th-Rated Sector
Is it time to buy Technology? This month's “Of Special Interest” examines the sector's merits and finds that while there are signs of improvement, it is too soon to make a big move here.
April Market Action
Relief finally came to Wall Street, not in the form of rebate checks or rate cuts, but from the strongest monthly returns since December 2003.
Economic Watch
Even though government statistics do not yet indicate a declining quarter of real GDP growth, we believe we are, in fact, in the grip of a recession.
Industrial Metals: Now Over-Mined?
Waiting for the curtain to fall on Industrial Metals, we recap the “three acts” and throw in a time-tested contrarian indicator to boot.
Inflation Falls During/After Recessions
Longer term, we are concerned about the rising trend of food and energy inflation.
Inflation Understated Not Overstated
There is political pressure to keep inflation low, minimizing COLA (cost of living adjustments) and Social Security costs. Low inflation also helps to keep interest rates down, which keeps government interest payments as low as possible.
Major Trend Edges Up To Neutral In April
Major Trend Index improved to Neutral in early April and clinging there now. Are we seeing a delayed bear market rally? Examining what could come next.
Morose On Main Street… So Why Isn’t The Smart Money Worried?
Consumer confidence levels have sunk to five year lows. Could this be a bullish omen for the markets?
NASDAQ Ten Year ACR Now At An All-Time Low...And Heading Lower
Demoralizing long term returns factor into why the investing public has avoided the U.S. stock market during the last several years — even during the bull market.
Short Selling: From Un-American To All-American
It doesn’t seem too long ago when short sellers were vilified for bringing down viable public companies, and the appropriate punishment for short selling was deemed to be a public caning.
The GDP Report You Didn’t Read
We’re back on form after last month’s praise of government economists... questioning the value of the GDP Deflator.
What Early Cycle Leadership Looks Like… An Historical Perspective
In the spirit of historical market research, we thought it would be a good time to revisit which industry groups perform best from bear market lows.
Worth Noting... A Scary Top Ten List
Former Morgan Stanley strategist Byron Wein—now at Pequot Capital—publishes an annual list of potential market and economic “surprises” that has become a must read for institutional investors. Along the same lines, Wired magazine listed ten potential threats to what it calls the “Long Boom”. (Warning: This list might make The Leuthold Group look cheerful).
Stock Market
- Major Trend Edges Up To Neutral In April
- The GDP Report You Didn’t Read
- Industrial Metals: Now Over-Mined?
- Short Selling: From Un-American To All-American
- Worth Noting... A Scary Top Ten List
- April Market Action
- Morose On Main Street… So Why Isn’t The Smart Money Worried?
- NASDAQ Ten Year ACR Now At An All-Time Low...And Heading Lower
- What Early Cycle Leadership Looks Like… An Historical Perspective
- Economic Watch
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Inflation Watch
Perception for the Professional
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