Green Book January 2012
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Featured Articles
Buy Prior Year’s Winner, Loser, or Runner-Up?
The best strategy has been to buy not the prior year’s top performing sector or asset class, but to buy the runners-up—or “Bridesmaids”— of the prior year.
Factor Performance For 2011
A detailed look at quantitative factor performance for 2011. What worked and what did not?
Falling Commodity Prices Tamping Down Inflation Pressures
Through November, the CPI is now up 3.4% from year ago levels, while the PPI is up 5.7%.
Group Trends of 2010 Persist In 2011—Somewhat
How did 2010’s “Dreams” and “Nightmares” pan out in 2011? What are 2011’s hypothetical portfolios predicting for 2012?
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings
Leuthold Stock Quality Ranking work is currently showing that High Quality stocks outperformed during 2011. More upside for High Quality stocks going into 2012?
Looking Deeper Into The Tails Of Distribution
Leuthold’s Eric Weigel examines both positive and negative tail risk among asset classes over two time periods… the recent volatile era versus a preceding, not-as-volatile time period.
New Year’s Surprise: Turning More Bullish
Major Trend Index improves to positive and Dow Theory Says “Buy”!
New “Lower Risk” Signal Generated
Bond Market Risk Aversion Index fell in December, resulting in a new “lower risk” signal that closed out the “higher risk” signal which occurred back in May. We are now cautiously optimistic.
Playing The Bounce: Last Screen Of The Season & Historical Results
The last screen of 2011 is presented and historical November Bounce screen results are detailed.
Risk Premium for Stocks Making a Comeback…
Andy Engel revisits our Stock/Bond Performance Differential study which examines rolling stock/bond spreads over various time periods and subsequent asset class returns. It appears that trends are finally reverting slowly toward the norm.
Select Industries: Buying Railroads
An addition of an Industrial group to the strategy, Railroads appealed for a number of reasons including a strong GS Score and improving margins across the industry.
Worrying About 2019 - A Longer Term Forecast
Forecast for 2019 (yes that’s 8 years away) is for S&P 500 to reach 1974 (an +8.0% ACR). Projection based simply on earnings growth and normalized P/E ratios.
“Another” Year Of Gains?
U.S. equity investors were disappointed in 2011, but we’d point out they fared better than investors in 45 of 48 other countries tracked by MSCI.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- New Year’s Surprise: Turning More Bullish
- “Another” Year Of Gains?
- Worrying About 2019 - A Longer Term Forecast
- Buy Prior Year’s Winner, Loser, or Runner-Up?
- Group Trends of 2010 Persist In 2011—Somewhat
- Playing The Bounce: Last Screen Of The Season & Historical Results
- Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings
- Looking Deeper Into The Tails Of Distribution
- 2011 Volatility Summary: S&P 500 And NASDAQ
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Inflation Watch
Buy Prior Year’s Winner, Loser, or Runner-Up?
The best strategy has been to buy not the prior year’s top performing sector or asset class, but to buy the runners-up—or “Bridesmaids”— of the prior year.
Factor Performance For 2011
A detailed look at quantitative factor performance for 2011. What worked and what did not?
Falling Commodity Prices Tamping Down Inflation Pressures
Through November, the CPI is now up 3.4% from year ago levels, while the PPI is up 5.7%.
Group Trends of 2010 Persist In 2011—Somewhat
How did 2010’s “Dreams” and “Nightmares” pan out in 2011? What are 2011’s hypothetical portfolios predicting for 2012?
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings
Leuthold Stock Quality Ranking work is currently showing that High Quality stocks outperformed during 2011. More upside for High Quality stocks going into 2012?
Looking Deeper Into The Tails Of Distribution
Leuthold’s Eric Weigel examines both positive and negative tail risk among asset classes over two time periods… the recent volatile era versus a preceding, not-as-volatile time period.
New Year’s Surprise: Turning More Bullish
Major Trend Index improves to positive and Dow Theory Says “Buy”!
New “Lower Risk” Signal Generated
Bond Market Risk Aversion Index fell in December, resulting in a new “lower risk” signal that closed out the “higher risk” signal which occurred back in May. We are now cautiously optimistic.
Playing The Bounce: Last Screen Of The Season & Historical Results
The last screen of 2011 is presented and historical November Bounce screen results are detailed.
Risk Premium for Stocks Making a Comeback…
Andy Engel revisits our Stock/Bond Performance Differential study which examines rolling stock/bond spreads over various time periods and subsequent asset class returns. It appears that trends are finally reverting slowly toward the norm.
Select Industries: Buying Railroads
An addition of an Industrial group to the strategy, Railroads appealed for a number of reasons including a strong GS Score and improving margins across the industry.
Worrying About 2019 - A Longer Term Forecast
Forecast for 2019 (yes that’s 8 years away) is for S&P 500 to reach 1974 (an +8.0% ACR). Projection based simply on earnings growth and normalized P/E ratios.
“Another” Year Of Gains?
U.S. equity investors were disappointed in 2011, but we’d point out they fared better than investors in 45 of 48 other countries tracked by MSCI.
Stock Market
- New Year’s Surprise: Turning More Bullish
- “Another” Year Of Gains?
- Worrying About 2019 - A Longer Term Forecast
- Buy Prior Year’s Winner, Loser, or Runner-Up?
- Group Trends of 2010 Persist In 2011—Somewhat
- Playing The Bounce: Last Screen Of The Season & Historical Results
- Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings
- Looking Deeper Into The Tails Of Distribution
- 2011 Volatility Summary: S&P 500 And NASDAQ
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Inflation Watch
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
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