Articles by Phil Segner Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Read this week's Major Trend. 

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Read this week's Major Trend. 

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Read this week's Major Trend. 

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Read this week's Major Trend. 

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Those complaining about the “Top 1%” controlling all the wealth may finally be getting some satisfaction. Since Halloween, it has been mostly rough sledding for our five-member “4% Club” contingent.

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Read this week's Major Trend. 

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On a total return basis, the S&P 500 posted its first monthly loss since last April. Downside to median levels narrowed slightly but remain very close to contemporary extremes.

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On a total return basis, the S&P 500’s February loss of 0.8% was its first monthly decline since last April. However, the equal-weighted S&P 500 advanced 3.5%. The resulting performance gap, in favor of the average stock, is the largest since April 2009, when the market blasted off the GFC lows.

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Since Halloween, RB Value (+14%) has dominated RB Growth (-7%); it was the best four-month stretch for RB Value relative to RB Growth since April 2022. During that time, the change in valuation is unmistakable—with Large Value now much less of a bargain.

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The equal-weighted S&P 500’s +4% return in February outperformed the S&P 600’s +2%, pushing the Ratio of Ratio’s valuation gap to its widest margin since September 2024. A declining P/E multiple for the median Small Cap in our L3000 universe was also at play, migrating from 21.4x to 20.0x.

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The Up/Down ratio for the second month of Q4 reporting is 1.80. Aside from a slight hiccup last spring, this Up/Down work has consistently grown for the past nine quarters. The vignette has now reached a level that has previously been very difficult to maintain, especially since the GFC.

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With S&P 500 Q4 reporting winding down, estimated operating EPS is now 6.9% higher than at the start of the year.

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Read this week's Major Trend. 

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Read this week's Major Trend. 

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Read this week's Major Trend. 

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Read this week's Major Trend.

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The Equal Weighted S&P 500 (+3.4%) had its best month versus the S&P 500 Top 10 Index (-0.9%)since March 2025. Poor results coming from MSFT (-11%), AAPL (-5%), and Broadcom (-4%) dragged down the once bulletproof Top 10. The average stock in the S&P 500 has now outperformed the largest ten for three consecutive months, with David beating Goliath by 8.5% during that span.

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Since Halloween, RB Value (+12%) has been on a tear compared to RB Growth (-5%)—the best three-month stretch for RB Value relative to RB Growth since the start of 2022.

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Despite all the talk about Small Caps ripping higher, the Ratio of Ratios narrowed only 1%. The S&P 600 (best SC proxy for this vignette) started 2026 off with a 5.6% gain. The Equal Weighted S&P 500 (best LC proxy), advanced 3.3%.

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The first Up/Down ratio for Q4 is 2.63. Once again, this is another new high for the “one-month” ratio measured back to the amazing earnings growth following the 2020 EPS washout. Given the results of the past three quarters, this “contemporary record” storyline in our Up/Down work is feeling repetitive.

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