Articles by Phil Segner Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Read this week's Major Trend. 

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Read this week's Major Trend. 

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Five of the Magnificent Seven firms ended November in the red. Despite that turbulence at the top, the S&P 500 still managed to eke out a gain for the seventh-consecutive month. The valiant November effort from the index’s 2025 underdogs—Value, High Dividend, Low Volatility, and Equal Weight—won’t change much in the final assessment of the year.

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Last month, Royal Blue Value (+3.5%) outdid RB Growth (-4.1%) for the first time since April 2022. Over the last two years, Royal Blue Growth is up 52%, just a bit more than Royal Blue Value’s gain of 51%.

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It’s been five long years since Small Caps had their last sustained relative-strength rally: From November 2020 through March 2021, the S&P 600 gained an astounding 51% versus the S&P 500’s +22%.

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The latest Up/Down ratio is 1.64—the second consecutive above-average reading for this vignette. Since the GFC, outperforming quarters have most commonly appeared in chunks of four or five. Still, for now, the story of EPS-growth expansion continues to gain steam.

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As we tickle the October high, the present bull has already achieved something quite special. This iteration has posted the largest price gain (+93%) of any bull market that wasn’t born in a recession.

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The index’s monthly win streak looked as dead as Disco as November progressed. Then, SPX rallied to close the month with its best five-day run since mid-May to attain a 7th consecutive monthly win. In the majority of prior cases, the index proceeded to post above average results for the next three- and six-month periods.

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The index gained 5% in the last five trading days of November to eke out a minuscule gain—but it was enough to score its seventh-consecutive monthly advance. The S&P 500 is back within spitting distance of its all-time high set in late October.

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Read this week's MTI commentary

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With the second month of Q3 reporting complete, S&P 500 estimated bottom-up operating EPS continued to scream higher (Chart 1). At $72.40, it is now 8.2% above the level at the end of September (before Q3 earnings reports began). Percentage-wise, this is double the bounce we saw two months into the still historically very good Q2 earnings period. Q3’s YOY growth stands at 22%—the highest rate since the 2021 surge out of the pandemic.

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Read this week's Major Trend. 

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Read this week's Major Trend. 

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Read this week's Major Trend. 

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An 8.5% gain, modest by Nvidia standards, propelled that firm to a congruent 8.5% weight in the S&P 500—a new record. The semiconductor firm also achieved the stock market’s first $5 trillion valuation last month. That’s a little larger than the annual economic output of Germany—or the combined output of Central and South America.

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Small Cap Growth continued its surge over Small Cap Value. From March forward, SC Growth has gained 30% versus +18% for SC Value.

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The Russell 2000 (lower-quality firms) has gained 12% YTD, while the higher-quality S&P 600 has advanced only 4%. Since we need P/E ratios to calculate this measure, firms with no earnings are excluded. For that reason, the ratio continues to sag.

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The Up/Down ratio reads 2.14. We have to go all the way back to October 2021 to find a higher “one-month” ratio. Aside from the Q1-25 hiccup, the ratio has advanced the past seven quarters and now sits at a level generally associated with a robust economy.

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Read this week's Major Trend.

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