Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
View From The North Country
A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2005.
View From The North Country
A special Kate Welling interview with Steve Leuthold. Discussion runs the gambit from Leuthold’s current outlook for the stock/bond markets, to groups he favors, to liquidity concerns, and hedge funds.
U.S. Market Remains Relatively Overvalued Compared To Rest Of World
U.S. stock market is relatively overvalued on a composite basis when considering P/E, P/B, P/CF, Yield, and Market Cap/GDP.
May Market Action
For those who were having trouble remembering what positive returns felt like, May’s stock market strength probably came as welcomed relief.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Net Inflow Rises To 6-Month High In May
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $12 billion is estimated for May, the strongest month of cash inflow since November 2004’s $12.9 billion.
Energy Sector Profit Margins Have Never Been Better (1957 To Date)
With profit margins now at 9.85%, the Energy sector is now as good as it gets.
Examining Oil Prices Vs. The S&P 500
A chronological chart of the relationship between oil and stock prices.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Very Late In Cycle, But Still Potential Upside
Stock market now it is third year. Based on the average performance, this may be getting long in the tooth.
Everybody Seems To Be Asking About REITs
Andy Engel’s current take on the REIT sector. Discussed from both a quantitative and qualitative perspective. Should you be buying or selling REITs?
Checking In On The Dollar
In Steve Leuthold’s 2005 ‘Outlook’, he called for a strengthening of the Dollar vs. the Euro in 2005, with the Dollar/Euro exchange rate hitting 1.16 before year end. So far, the dollar has made good progress towards achieving that target.
New Histogram: Oil Prices Vs. The S&P 500
This month, Eric Bjorgen presents a unique take on stock market valuations, by determining how many barrels of oil it takes to buy one unit of the S&P 500. Based on the historical relationship, the stock market is not overvalued versus oil.
Mutual Fund Flows…..Net Redemptions In April For U.S. Equity Funds
This is the first month of net redemptions in eight months, the last time being the month of August 2004.
What To Make Of The VIX?
VIX was a hot topic in April, as investors saw the increased volatility as a sign the market was poised to rally. Our long term studies of the VIX, results in us cautioning investors about reading too much into the recent move in this volatility index.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Historical Comparisons
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
View From The North Country
Leuthold outlines three conditions for “fixing” Social Security: Increased Retirement Age, Index Benefits To Price Index, and Means Testing.
Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
The current expansion is below the average pace of a typical expansion.
April Market Action
The YTD performance gap between large caps and small caps continues to widen.
U.S. Market Remains Relatively Overvalued Compared To Rest Of World
U.S. market ranks as fifth most expensive market based on comparisons to 44 countries from around the world.
Higher Costs Starting To Pressure Margins
Looking at the last five quarters’ S&P 500 income statements.
Energy Prices In Perspective
With oil and gas prices continuing to make new highs, we thought it would be helpful to put some perspective on rising energy prices.
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