Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

An examination of Financial groups with respect to insider selling/buying. At the extremes, this tool (which is employed in our GS Scores) works pretty well.

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Capex spending on the rise. Eric Bjorgen segments the spending areas and theorizes about which groups will be the most significant beneficiaries of spending. Great idea generator for those looking for ways to play the rising capex spending.

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Small caps and large caps had a nice bounce in January, so-so for mid caps.

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Jim Floyd looks at yield curve inversion as a predictor of bear markets. There is some correlation, but the relationship is far from perfect.

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We wondered whether or not strong relative sector price action during January tended to persist for the remaining eleven months of the year. During the last 16 years, evidence proves that the strength does persist.

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Metals stocks have already had a good strong run, and have been held in our portfolio for four years now. Despite the strong gains there is still significant upside when looking at inflation adjusted prices, and the strong demand/limited supply.

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Be sure to check out our new In Focus Special Study, sent to research clients in early February. In it we screen for potential LBO candidates.

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Although the performance hurdle had not been set very high, many of the stock market indexes posted gains in January that beat (or rivaled) the gains for the entire year of 2005.

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Technology continues to be a hot topic. This month’s “Inside The Stock Market” takes an objective look at the Tech sector.

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It was looking to be a fairly good month in terms of net cash flow until the third week of January when domestic equity ETFs were socked with nearly $7.5 billion of outflow (which we are certain was institutional activity).

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Real GDP in Q4 was not too robust, but the numbers will likely be revised upward.

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The year’s best and worst performing groups. Buying 2004 big winners produced good 2005 performance. How will 2005 winners do in 2006?

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Good but not a great “Bounce”, so far.

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The end of year marked the third consecutive year of positive returns for the stock market, even though they were hardly the kind of gains that we saw in the earlier stages of the current recovery phase for stocks.

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2005's YTD tally is the second lowest going back 14 years, and demonstrates fund investors’ consistent aversion to U.S. focused stock funds throughout the year.

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Based on post WWII stock market recoveries, the current recovery could have some more upside (12% possibly).

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The Energy sector is really driving S&P 500 earnings Growth.

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2005 Performance Recap: Equities, Fixed Income, Large Vs. Small Caps, Weighted Vs. Unweighted S&P 500, Industrial Metals and AdvantHedge.

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While November’s net inflow of $3 billion into traditional open-end equity funds is a break from this recent outflow trend, it’s still a stretch to say that Main Street investors are embracing stocks once again.

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Within the current cycle, the stock market recovery is mature, but based on the average post WWII recovery could still have some upside (S&P 500 to 1400?). Currently, earnings growth is well beyond historical averages, but the economic expansion is below the norm.

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