Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Defensive Equity Groups...Some Time-Tested Ideas, And A Few New Ones
In our most recent update of our defensive group work, we examined industry group performance within the last four bear market cycles in order to determine which groups delivered consistent leadership.
Attractive Groups Based On Insider Scores
Best looking groups based on current Insider Buying Selling patterns include: Gas Utilities, Aluminum, Brewers and Auto Manufacturers.
Checking In On The Tech Top 20–Valuations Remain Reasonable
The twenty biggest Tech stocks were flat in April, but remain up 7% YTD on a median basis.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Cash Flood Into Foreign Focus Funds Continues
On a YTD basis, flow into domestic focused stock funds significantly trails the record-breaking amount of flow going into international and global equity funds.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Not Much Cash Flow Going Into U.S. Stock Funds
On a YTD basis, flow into domestic focused stock funds significantly trails the record-breaking amount of flow going into international and global equity funds— similar to what we saw for much of 2005.
View From The North Country
Steve presents the transcript of his April 3rd interview with Barron's Senior Editor, Sandra Ward.
First Quarter Market Action
Stocks continued to move higher in the first quarter, with many of the broad market indexes finishing out Q1 near their cyclical highs.
When Fed Tightening Ends...What Can Be Expected From The Stock Market?
Data from the last seven tightening cycles suggests that too way much attention is currently being given as to when the Fed will be finished tightening. The direction of the stock market after the last rate hike has much more to do with prevailing economic and stock market conditions.
Insider Buying/Selling In Technology Sector…..Some Isolated Buy Signals
At the market lows, the Tech insiders while not net buyers clearly slowed their aggressive selling.
Tracking The Herd Mentality Of Corporate Buyers…..A New Indicator
In recent years cash acquisition activity has run highest when stock prices are high, and lowest when stock prices are down.
Capex Beneficiaries: Where Is The Big Spending….And Which Industries Stand To Gain?
Capex spending on the rise. Eric Bjorgen segments the spending areas and theorizes about which groups will be the most significant beneficiaries of spending. Great idea generator for those looking for ways to play the rising capex spending.
Earnings Momentum Excluding Energy: Energy’s Boost To Become A Drag?
Energy sector earnings growth has helped keep overall S&P earnings advancing at a relatively strong rate. Growth would be about 9% to 10% below reported growth if Energy stocks were excluded.
View From The North Country
The persistent rise in short term rates could have a big impact on the consumer. The rising prime rate has boosted debt service costs substantially, and “Financial Death Traps” may be on the horizon.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Foreign Equity Funds Still Drawing Record Cash
To us, the infatuation with foreign funds is looking pretty frothy and certainly raises a contrarian red flag.
February Market Action
For the month of February, the majority of broad stock market indexes ended roughly where they began.
What Does An Inverted Yield Curve Imply For The Financials?
Conventional wisdom states that inverted yield curves are bad for Financial groups. Doug Ramsey looks at the history of past inversions.
Insider Selling/Buying In The Financial Sector…..Lots Of Selling At Present
An examination of Financial groups with respect to insider selling/buying. At the extremes, this tool (which is employed in our GS Scores) works pretty well.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Foreign Funds Continue To Draw The Most Cash Flow
It was looking to be a fairly good month in terms of net cash flow until the third week of January when domestic equity ETFs were socked with nearly $7.5 billion of outflow (which we are certain was institutional activity).
Update On The Economy….Q4 Just A Bump In The Road...Or Something More?
Real GDP in Q4 was not too robust, but the numbers will likely be revised upward.
Playing The Bounce Update: Good Bounce In January
Small caps and large caps had a nice bounce in January, so-so for mid caps.