Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

On a YTD basis, flow into domestic focused stock funds significantly trails the record-breaking amount of flow going into international and global equity funds.

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It is well-known that valuations for U.S. large-caps have compressed dramatically since their late 1990s heydays, and among all large-caps the cheapest of the cheap may be the health care stocks. 

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The Materials sector moved up to the top position in the latest Sector Power Rankings, based on the number of Attractive and Unattractive groups in each sector.

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The big stories driving the day to day market action in April continued to be (in no particular order) the future of Fed policy, oil prices, the economy, and escalating tensions with Iran. However, despite the various uncertainties and vagaries regarding the aforementioned, many stock market indexes hit cyclical bull market highs during the month.

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In our most recent update of our defensive group work, we examined industry group performance within the last four bear market cycles in order to determine which groups delivered consistent leadership.

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Best looking groups based on current Insider Buying Selling patterns include: Gas Utilities, Aluminum, Brewers and Auto Manufacturers.

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The twenty biggest Tech stocks were flat in April, but remain up 7% YTD on a median basis.

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On a YTD basis, flow into domestic focused stock funds significantly trails the record-breaking amount of flow going into international and global equity funds.

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This month Steve again lays out both the Bull and Bear cases.

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Stocks continued to move higher in the first quarter, with many of the broad market indexes finishing out Q1 near their cyclical highs.

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Data from the last seven tightening cycles suggests that too way much attention is currently being given as to when the Fed will be finished tightening. The direction of the stock market after the last rate hike has much more to do with prevailing economic and stock market conditions.

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At the market lows, the Tech insiders while not net buyers clearly slowed their aggressive selling.

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In recent years cash acquisition activity has run highest when stock prices are high, and lowest when stock prices are down.

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On a YTD basis, flow into domestic focused stock funds significantly trails the record-breaking amount of flow going into international and global equity funds— similar to what we saw for much of 2005.

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Steve presents the transcript of his April 3rd interview with Barron's Senior Editor, Sandra Ward.

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Energy sector earnings growth has helped keep overall S&P earnings advancing at a relatively strong rate. Growth would be about 9% to 10% below reported growth if Energy stocks were excluded.

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The persistent rise in short term rates could have a big impact on the consumer. The rising prime rate has boosted debt service costs substantially, and “Financial Death Traps” may be on the horizon.

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To us, the infatuation with foreign funds is looking pretty frothy and certainly raises a contrarian red flag.

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For the month of February, the majority of broad stock market indexes ended roughly where they began.

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Conventional wisdom states that inverted yield curves are bad for Financial groups. Doug Ramsey looks at the history of past inversions.

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