Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Value continues to have leadership position over Growth among Large Cap stocks. Mid Caps also shifting to favor Value, but Growth still leading in the Small Cap tier.

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In July, weakness early in the month later transitioned into a comeback rally of sorts for the major stock market indexes.

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We meticulously comb through the lists of weekly new highs and new lows so that we exclude those derivatives and non-operating companies, in order to get a true picture of the stock market health.

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Assuming a bear market has already begun, what can be expected?

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There does appear to be some validity to using relative highs on the VIX as short term Buy indicators.

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Both domestic and foreign markets have seen confidence crushing declines, causing many investors to pull cash from equity holdings and perhaps direct that cash into safer havens.

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Half time update. Leuthold looks back at December 2005 predictions. Additional comments on Inflation, Corporate Earnings, The Dollar, Oil Prices, Gold, and Federal Budget Deficit.

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For the first time since the market low in March 2003, many investors got a chance to remember what a good old fashioned correction felt like.

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Stocks that had performed the best over the previous 11 month period got punished the worst in the declining market.

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Which S&P sectors have the most cash, and how may it be put to use?

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The Materials sector moved up to the top position in the latest Sector Power Rankings, based on the number of Attractive and Unattractive groups in each sector.

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During the last few months, we have been looking at the Insider Selling and Buying among various broad sectors and last month decided to present those specific equity industry groups that currently have the best scores based on the insider patterns of selling and buying.

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Notwithstanding the market action in the most recent month, in the longer term we suspect that the Japanese stock market might be less vulnerable than other regions and countries of the world (including the U.S.).

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We may or may not be close to entering a new cyclical bear market, but as we view it, the risk has risen significantly.

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During May, the 10 day weighted VIX rose from a level of 11.7 to a peak of 16.7, prompting some to wonder if this work was signaling a buy signal. In fact, the VIX is now at the highest level since mid 2004, but this is still far from a buy signal.

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“Sell in May, then go away” goes that old piece of Wall Street wisdom. Problem is, this year everybody seemed to sell in May, so going away doesn’t seem like such a good idea anymore.

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On a YTD basis, flow into domestic focused stock funds significantly trails the record-breaking amount of flow going into international and global equity funds.

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It is well-known that valuations for U.S. large-caps have compressed dramatically since their late 1990s heydays, and among all large-caps the cheapest of the cheap may be the health care stocks. 

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This month Steve again lays out both the Bull and Bear cases.

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The big stories driving the day to day market action in April continued to be (in no particular order) the future of Fed policy, oil prices, the economy, and escalating tensions with Iran. However, despite the various uncertainties and vagaries regarding the aforementioned, many stock market indexes hit cyclical bull market highs during the month.

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