Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Assessing The Cycle….Putting Today’s Growth Into A Historical Context
Within the current cycle, the stock market recovery is mature, but based on the average post WWII recovery could still have some upside (S&P 500 to 1400?). Currently, earnings growth is well beyond historical averages, but the economic expansion is below the norm.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Light Net Inflow Estimated For October
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $1.5 billion is estimated for October, which ends two consecutive months of net redemptions in August and September.
October Market Action
With most indexes declining during October, it was not a bad month to have a portion of the asset allocation portfolio hedged.
Will Traditional Defensive Groups Work The Same This Time Around?
For clients unable to shift to equity alternatives or increase cash holdings, this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section provides an update of our Defensive Stock group study in order to identify some potential hiding places.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
Playing The Bounce Update: We Are Now In The Traditional “Bounce” Season
No rebound yet in the “Playing The Bounce” stocks. Could see turnaround in November.
Inflation Impact On The Stock Market
CPI expected to decline in 2006 and historically a decelerating CPI is a significant stock market positive, producing above average returns. Stage could be setting for a market rally in 2006 as inflation pressures wane.
View From The North Country
The perils of speculation in Housing…..lessons people are now learning. Also, client questions....and Leuthold's answers.
Looking For Earnings Disappointments.....Before They Hit The Fan
New Improved Potential Earnings Disappointments Screen: Inventory Growth Versus Sales Growth.
S&P 500 Energy Weight Is Misleading: Fewer Constituents, Not Less Market Cap
S&P 500 Energy weight is misleading. Adding the largest multi-national integrated oil companies to the S&P’s 10% energy weight doubles it to 20%.
View From The North Country
Steve Leuthold lays out both the bullish and bearish stock market cases.
Insider Selling/Buying In Health Care Sector…..Has Proven To Be A Useful Guide
A look at the Insider Selling patterns of several Health Care related groups. As with Energy groups, there is some evidence that Insiders’ transactions can be useful in identifying tops and bottoms in specific industry areas.
September Market Action
Going into September, there was little expectation that equities would perform strongly in the coming month, and by that token, the market did not disappoint.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Monthly Net Redemptions For The Second Month In A Row
Now with two months of net outflow, we could be seeing complacency giving way to market concern.
Major Trend Index....Now Negative
A detailed explanation about the decline in the Major Trend Index, which is primarily due to deterioration in the Economic/Interest Rates/Inflation category (rising inflation pressures) and a loss for the Supply/Demand components.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
Comparison the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
Cautious On Oil Stocks In The Short Term
Surprised that crude oil did not soar above $70. Price of crude seems to have double topped at $70 and some correction is expected in coming months.
Stock Market Supply/Demand: The Four Most Interesting Trends Of 2005
In reviewing the numerous Supply/Demand factors we track, there were four trends that are perhaps the most important and/or most interesting on this front so far in 2005.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Assessing The Current Cycle From A Historical Perspective
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
What Moves in the Fourth Quarter?
The top ten groups, from our 150+ group history, in each of the last six years during the fourth quarter (October to December performance).
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