Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
View From The North Country
A special Kate Welling interview with Steve Leuthold. Discussion runs the gambit from Leuthold’s current outlook for the stock/bond markets, to groups he favors, to liquidity concerns, and hedge funds.
U.S. Market Remains Relatively Overvalued Compared To Rest Of World
U.S. stock market is relatively overvalued on a composite basis when considering P/E, P/B, P/CF, Yield, and Market Cap/GDP.
May Market Action
For those who were having trouble remembering what positive returns felt like, May’s stock market strength probably came as welcomed relief.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Net Inflow Rises To 6-Month High In May
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $12 billion is estimated for May, the strongest month of cash inflow since November 2004’s $12.9 billion.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Historical Comparisons
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
View From The North Country
Leuthold outlines three conditions for “fixing” Social Security: Increased Retirement Age, Index Benefits To Price Index, and Means Testing.
Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
The current expansion is below the average pace of a typical expansion.
April Market Action
The YTD performance gap between large caps and small caps continues to widen.
U.S. Market Remains Relatively Overvalued Compared To Rest Of World
U.S. market ranks as fifth most expensive market based on comparisons to 44 countries from around the world.
Higher Costs Starting To Pressure Margins
Looking at the last five quarters’ S&P 500 income statements.
Checking In On The Dollar
In Steve Leuthold’s 2005 ‘Outlook’, he called for a strengthening of the Dollar vs. the Euro in 2005, with the Dollar/Euro exchange rate hitting 1.16 before year end. So far, the dollar has made good progress towards achieving that target.
New Histogram: Oil Prices Vs. The S&P 500
This month, Eric Bjorgen presents a unique take on stock market valuations, by determining how many barrels of oil it takes to buy one unit of the S&P 500. Based on the historical relationship, the stock market is not overvalued versus oil.
Mutual Fund Flows…..Net Redemptions In April For U.S. Equity Funds
This is the first month of net redemptions in eight months, the last time being the month of August 2004.
What To Make Of The VIX?
VIX was a hot topic in April, as investors saw the increased volatility as a sign the market was poised to rally. Our long term studies of the VIX, results in us cautioning investors about reading too much into the recent move in this volatility index.
View From The North Country
Steve presents some his very long term worries. These include debilitating and dangerous inflation, run away government spending, and an impending crush of personal debt.
Recent S&P Sector Weight Trends Within The Current Bull Market
The S&P 500’s largest and most rapidly increasing sectors.
March Market Action
Market is very oversold after the March decline, and a near term rally is expected soon.
Performance Expectations For Third Year Of Recovery
Based on study of bear market recoveries dating back to 1900, the third year of the recovery is typically not strong. However, this current recovery has lagged the normal recoveries in terms of performance.
Analyzing Large Cap, Mid Cap & Small Cap 2004 Composite Income Statements
2004 earnings very strong but further earnings improvements in 2005 will be largely a function of stronger sales, not any more margin expansions.
Energy Prices In Perspective
With oil and gas prices continuing to make new highs, we thought it would be helpful to put some perspective on rising energy prices.
Perception for the Professional
May 2026 Issue
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