Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
View From The North Country
Steve Leuthold answers client questions in this month’s “View From The North Country”, including his thoughts on the slowing earnings growth, and his definition of secular bear markets. His dollar outlook is also updated.
Market Sentiment: Currently A Mixed Bag
An in depth discussion of market sentiment...At present, it is a real mixed bag, there is no clear cut consensus.
Playing The Bounce Update: We Are Now In The Traditional “Bounce” Season
Majority of this year’s “Playing The Bounce” list are Tech related names, re-enforcing our belief that the Tech stocks will continue to outperform on a tactical basis.
Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Less Negative, But Still Rated Neutral
Small Caps were big winners in September, but our Small Cap/Large Cap leadership model is still neutral (despite a slight improvement in October). Transition to Large Cap leadership is likely in coming months, but momentum continues to favor Small Caps.
September Mutual Fund Flows...Return To Equity Fund Net Inflow
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $10.0 billion is estimated for September.
Stock Market Breadth Continues To Be Impressive
Market breadth using Advance/Decline Lines looks very bullish for stocks.
Scanning The Markets
Many of the past summer’s trends reversed last month, as September saw a bounce in “smid” caps and in the tech sector.
Should Slowing Earnings Growth Be A Serious Concern?
Earnings growth still coming in strong. While not as robust as past 3-4 quarter’s growth rates, earnings are expected to be above historical trend line growth for the next 4-5 quarters.
Growth Stocks: Where The Value Is
Large Cap Growth stocks are now cheap relative to Large Cap Value. Value segment still leads over Growth among the Small Caps and among the Mid Caps.
View From The North Country
After all the outrage over Enron and other accounting scandals, Congress is now working to over rule the FASB recommendations and guidelines regarding the accounting for options. They have clearly caved to the Tech lobby and their campaign contributions.
Assessing The Unemployment Statistics
The BLS’ Household and Payrolls surveys have been hopelessly out of sync for much of the current economic recovery, leading to debate about which statistic should be believed.
Getting Later In The Game For The Bull Run
Getting late in the game for the bull run. This is no longer a young bull market, but we continue to believe the market can still move higher from here.
Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
The average gain for the entire 12 month period spanning the pre- and post-election periods is not much different from the average gain in the comparable 12 month period for all years including non-election years.
Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
Over the past several months, we have been comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.
Tracking The Growing Cash On Corporate Balance Sheets
Yes it’s true that Small Caps have more cash on their balance sheets but, on a trend basis, the Small Cap cash advantage is shrinking.
August Mutual Fund Flows...Net Redemptions In August
U.S. focus equity fund net outflow of $5.0 billion is estimated for August.
Oil And Gas Prices In Perspective
In light of the continuing move in oil prices, we thought it would be useful to update our inflation adjusted oil and gas related charts from our June publication.
Scanning The Markets
August produced very little movement in the major market indices, which was not so bad considering a difficult July.
Still Can't Count Out The Consumer
American consumer spending is still in an uptrend, helping to drive economic growth, although to a lesser extent. In the meantime, CapEx spending has been accelerating, which should serve to pick up any economic slack.
View From The North Country
Continue to conclude the cyclical bull market prevails but my level of conviction is down a few notches. Also, an oil message from the market and “Don’t Be Economic Girlie Men”.
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March 2026 Issue
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