Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

For the May 2004 Number’s Game, we decided to do something new and different and take a closer look at Enterprise Value.

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Leuthold believes the big depressant to stock market these days is not necessarily potential for rising interest rates or higher inflation, but instead is due to the gray cloud of the Iraq situation. Good news is that U.S. may be starting to extricate itself from the Iraq quagmire, and that could be a very bullish development in June.

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While 2004 YTD inflow levels are not in “record” territory, this year has, so far, seen the second highest YTD level in history.

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Uncertainty in Iraq, terrorist threats, rising inflation, and higher interest rates (and Fed tightening) have taken center stage against a backdrop of impressive corporate earnings momentum and economic recovery.

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In terms of attitudinal factors, this excessive optimism and risk-taking may be a sign of an overheating market and impending correction.

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Still prefer the Small caps over Large caps, despite the fact that small caps are now selling at 1% premium relative to large caps, and that the small cap leadership phase is getting long in the tooth.

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The best performing groups in May were some of the YTD worst performers.

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This month, at the request of a client, we examined stock market performance volatility in the periods leading up to past Presidential elections.

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S&P 500 valuations using corporate profits (National Income Accounts), not as cheap as suggested and are likely faulty, in our opinion.

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Kate Welling Interviews Steve Leuthold: The Leuthold Group’s commonsensical adherence to investment disciplines, thoughts on rising inflation, attractive investment opportunities, Iraq, the reliability of U.S. government calculated statistics and estimates, and an abundance of other topics along with engaging banter.

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Although recent market weakness has not yet resulted in any weekly net redemptions, weekly cash flow levels are becoming increasingly volatile…..perhaps reflecting the times.

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Bull market still intact, but investor appetite for risk remains subdued. April’s preference was for defensive and conservative strategies. Old axiom “Sell in May and go away” doesn’t seem to apply during the 130 days leading up to election day.

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In terms of attitudinal factors, this excessive optimism and risk-taking may be a sign of an overheated market and impending correction.

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Our equity exposure still overweight in small and mid cap stocks, but we expect the market is progressing to a state of parity.

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Although the biggest gains are behind us, based on 1900-to-date, past bull market recoveries, the stock market still has potential upside of 13-16% over next 6-9 months.

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Lately, there has been renewed interest on the topic of new equity offerings, and not without good reason. After a three-year dry spell in underwriting activity, the offerings calendar has seemingly sprung to life in 2004.

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ComparIng earnings growth and estimates from Q1 2004 to those at the end of 2003.

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Recent job data re-enforces our belief the economy is rebounding nicely. Expect to see job picture continue to strengthen in coming months.

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In last month’s “View From The North Country” Steve Leuthold outlined his case for a strong dollar. This issue, we just wanted to show the updated charts, and comment that the rally appears to have begun.

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There is a clear lack of attractive options in fixed income and we are increasingly skeptical about the REIT markets, as premiums and new offerings are at or near peak levels. Industrial Metals still offer outstanding opportunity.

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