Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Clearly, in recent months,  the public has become much less enthusiastic about the stock market.

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We have been following OTC Bulletin Board trading activity since the fall of 2003. This month, we check in to review June’s activity (one month data lag) in order to see what changes have occurred since our last update.

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Terrorist threats, rising oil prices, the war in Iraq, and upcoming presidential election seem to have taken center stage against a backdrop of impressive corporate earnings momentum.

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Market seems to be moving toward a possible leadership transition from small/mid caps to large caps. Small caps significantly lagged large caps in July, and also now lag YTD.

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Current economic recovery may appear to be lagging, with a GDP growth rate of +3.6% ACR since Q1 2001, but most recent five expansions averaged +4.2% ACR and the big 1990-2000 expansion grew at only 3.4% per year. Economy is still healthy.

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May’s late rally extended into June to the delight of market bulls.

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Ten new components inserted into this list of the 99 stocks with the largest institutional ownership. Smallest turnover in four years. Russell also being rebalanced.

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GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($458 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.

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Based on the typical recovery, we constructed a series of monthly price targets for the S&P 500, going out 24 months from the October 9, 2002 bear market low, and from the March 11, 2003 secondary low.

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Derivative exposure among U.S. commercial banks continues to proliferate at alarming levels.

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U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $11 billion is estimated for June, reversing May’s light net outflow.

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Steve's Half Time Report: A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2004.

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A total of 38.4 billion Bulletin Board shares exchanged hands in May. This is the lowest level of the year.

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It now seems that the market has settled into a comfort zone— or put differently— a trading range that reflects investors’ current lack of conviction about prospects for the second half of the year.

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Based on recommendations from the investment services industry, Russell will shift the final day of its index reconstitution process to the last Friday in June, which is June 25 this year, instead of the last day in June.

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For the May 2004 Number’s Game, we decided to do something new and different and take a closer look at Enterprise Value.

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Leuthold believes the big depressant to stock market these days is not necessarily potential for rising interest rates or higher inflation, but instead is due to the gray cloud of the Iraq situation. Good news is that U.S. may be starting to extricate itself from the Iraq quagmire, and that could be a very bullish development in June.

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While 2004 YTD inflow levels are not in “record” territory, this year has, so far, seen the second highest YTD level in history.

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Uncertainty in Iraq, terrorist threats, rising inflation, and higher interest rates (and Fed tightening) have taken center stage against a backdrop of impressive corporate earnings momentum and economic recovery.

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In terms of attitudinal factors, this excessive optimism and risk-taking may be a sign of an overheating market and impending correction.

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