Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Earnings By Sector - Looking For EPS Growth In 2004
Earnings momentum still strong. Q4 reported S&P 500 earnings came in stronger than expected and 2004 estimates boosted to $60.00 (up 22%) after recording a 78% increase in 2003.
Are Most ETFs Un-Investable For Institutions?
Much has been made of ETFs, and their ability to attract fund flow. However, outside of SPDRs and QQQs, the liquidity and asset base of most ETFs is minimal and makes investing in most ETFs near impossible for institutional investors.
February Mutual Fund Flows...Big Inflows Continue
The numbers continue to be strong. At this point, we attribute the strong flow to a combination of seasonals, and pent up demand.
View From The North Country
Still expect to see market correction develop in coming weeks. Based on past market dynamics, a correction in excess of 5% is overdue, considering it has been almost 12 months of uninterrupted market upside.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume, Dollar Volume Both Up Dramatically In January
Checking in to review January’s trading data (month lag in data) in order to see what has changed since our last update.
The Changing Character Of The Market In February
Market character changed in February, with investors focusing on less risky groups. High beta stocks, which had been leading for most of 2003 and early 2004, were the big laggers in February. Winners in February were conservative low beta issues.
Tracking The Market Recovery
The current recovery has been tracking below the performance averages of past bear market recoveries.
January Mutual Fund Flows...Rivaling Record Levels Of 2000
January's equity fund flow was very strong across all equity subsets.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Share Volume Up, Dollar Volume Down In December
Checking in to review December’s trading data in order to see if anything has changed since our last update.
Playing The Bounce Update: Moderate Bounce In January
This year’s performance (through January 30th) was relatively good, but somewhat below past years’ typical results.
View From The North Country
This month’s “View From The North Country” presents data showing periods where interest rates (both long T-bonds and 90 day T-bills) rose and stocks also rose. It can happen!
The Fed Brings A Wet Blanket To The New Year’s Party
Market sell off in response to slight modification in Fed policy statement was absurd. During any healthy recovering economy, interest rates will rise in response to the improvement.
Turning The Corner
After a string of three consecutive down market years, the closing bell on the eve of the recent New Year put to bed the first annual gain for the U.S. stock market since 1999.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Fever Breaks In November?
In the last few issues, we wrote about the sharp spike in OTC Bulletin Board trading volume observed in September and October. This month, we check in to review November’s trading data in order to see if anything has changed.
Tracking The Market Recovery
Based on the long term averages, there is additional upside to the bull market in 2004, if the S&P 500 tracks the “classic” recovery pattern.
Playing The Bounce Update: Small Bounce In November And December
The 2003 performance through December 31st was relatively good, but somewhat below past years results.
Equity Performance By Market Cap Tiers
Weighted versus Unweighted S&P 500 comparison, Russell 2000 versus S&P 500 annual comparison and 2003 equity performance by market cap tiers.
Different Pictures Of Gold Prices
Gauging how much impact the dollar’s decline has had on the rising gold price.
December Mutual Fund Flows...Inflow Momentum Continues
We have now seen ten straight months of positive cash flow, totaling $141 billion. This momentum will likely spill over into 2004.
View From The North Country
I cannot recall another time when professional stock market opinion was so universally bullish regarding the coming year.
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