Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Economy will pick up steam in the second half, sustaining the already in progress earnings recovery. Also, Cyclical rally targets and equity leadership going into the second half.

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While the recent spike in insider selling has been well documented by the media as an ominous sign for stocks, the YTD level of net selling is down significantly from recent years.

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Unexpectedly, it seems that the public is coming back to the stock market. Best flow since May 2002. Typically, Main Street takes its time coming back to the party. Continued flow to mutual funds is stock market positive.

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While the NASDAQ short interest ratio continued to decline, the NYSE ratio increased in June.

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Another bullish sign is huge buildup of cash now sitting on the sidelines earning 0.7% in interest. As investors put this money to work, stocks should move higher.

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We remain confused by the huge revisions without a valid explanation.

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It looks like a strong first half can still lead to a good second half, unless the first half was really good.

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U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $8 billion is estimated for May.

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Overall earnings better than expected, as last year’s losses and write-offs turn into smaller losses and even gains in 2003.

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In 2003, the NASDAQ has not been as volatile as in recent years, but is still more volatile than the S&P 500.

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Tax disadvantaged REITs might now compete with tax advantaged high yielding non-REITs. We provide a list from a screen identifying high yielding non-REIT stocks.

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We view recent buy signals in Q4-2002 and Q1-2003 as a bullish indicator for the stock market. In the past, these “buy” signals have provided a timely indication that stock market performance would improve going forward.

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VLT Momentum registers another buy signal. Only in the 1930s has a similar pattern of buy signals developed. Third buy led to big gains back then.

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Both indicators drop to neutral in May.

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A look at group and sector leaders and laggers measured from both the October 9th 2002 bear market low and from the more recent, March 11th market low associated with the Iraq war.

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Does consumer confidence offers any insight into future spending patterns? Also, the case for shorting T-Bonds.

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On May 1^st, Standard and Poor’s implemented its changes in the Global Industry Classification System (GICS). Overall, we feel the changes are good.

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Based on cyclical bull market recovery from 1973-1974 secular bear market. There is still significant stock market upside from May’s month end price levels.

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April’s net inflow total certainly benefited from improved market action, as well as 11th hour IRA contributions ahead of the April 15th deadline.

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No doubt, “relief” was the primary component in April’s performance formula. Wall Street can now redirect the focus back to issues of domestic consequence….things like earnings, valuations, and economic growth.

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