Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Building A Head Of Steam
Based on cyclical bull market recovery from 1973-1974 secular bear market. There is still significant stock market upside from May’s month end price levels.
May Mutual Fund Flows...Net Inflow Continues
U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $8 billion is estimated for May.
Strong Q1 Earnings Prompt Boost To 2003 Earnings Estimate
Overall earnings better than expected, as last year’s losses and write-offs turn into smaller losses and even gains in 2003.
And Now...Back To The Fundamentals
No doubt, “relief” was the primary component in April’s performance formula. Wall Street can now redirect the focus back to issues of domestic consequence….things like earnings, valuations, and economic growth.
Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility On Par With NASDAQ Volatility In 2003
In terms of High Volatility days in April, the NASDAQ was less volatile than the S&P 500. They are about on par so far YTD.
Rising Interest Rates Don't Prohibit Rising Stock Prices
This month, we provide historical evidence that stocks can indeed move higher, even when interest rates rise. Six periods since 1955 are proof that it can happen and we expect it to happen again.
Insider Block Measures....Encouraged By New Confirming Bullish Signal
The decline in insider selling this year is a very encouraging sign for the stock market.
Better Top Line Growth Points Toward Improved Bottom Line
Earnings momentum may appear to be slowing, but it is last year’s comparisons that were overstating the results.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both the NASDAQ and NYSE short interest ratios increased in April.
The Rationale For Adding REITs To Core Portfolio
Adding new 5.0% REIT holding in Core Portfolio. Viewing it as an alternative to the low fixed income yields.
View From The North Country
Deficit Track” March data encouraging, but…...considering the tax cuts already on the books, combined with a bulge in spending, a fiscal 2003 deficit of $400 billion is in prospect.
Alert: Changes To The Global Industry Classification System
Each year, S&P and MSCI hold an annual review to make revisions that they believe will better enable their GIC System to most accurately reflect the sectors and industries most relevant to the equity investment community. Beginning on May 1st, a number of changes took place as a result of their annual review.
Can Bond Market Returns Match Future Stock Returns?
It will be tough for bonds to keep up with stocks over the next several years even though stock and bond returns are neck and neck over the past twenty years.
April Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Flows Rebound
April’s net inflow total certainly benefited from improved market action, as well as 11th hour IRA contributions ahead of the April 15th deadline.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both ratios still bullish.
March Mutual Fund Flows...Fleeing Stocks, Chasing Bonds
Past history shows the market can recover in spite of an absence of Main Street support.
Declining Defined Contribution Participation
A recently released survey of over 500 large and mid size employers found that the employee participation rate in 401(k) plans dropped to a level not seen since the early 1990s.
Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility Still High, But Coming Down
In Q1, the instances of High Volatility in the S&P 500 was at the fifth highest level dating back to 1900.
Insider Block Measures....Back Into “Normal” Net Selling Territory From Bullish Zone
The latest 10-week reading of 0.27% has risen back into the normal zone after spending six weeks in bullish territory.
View From The North Country
“View From The North Country” this month highlights several prior periods of “scary” market environments. In retrospect, all provided excellent buying opportunities.
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March 2026 Issue
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