Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
2004 Dreams And Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
It would have been a successful strategy to buy the 20 worst sectors from 2003 at the start of 2004.
Large Cap Versus Small Cap
Small caps continue to be the market leaders over large caps. This trend is expected to continue into 2005, as our small cap leadership model has recently improved, and is now rated slightly positive.
View From The North Country
We wish you all a prosperous and happy New Year…..And, let us pray my cautious stock market outlook for 2005 proves to be wrong.
Playing The Bounce Update: So Far, A Very Good Bounce Season
December Bounce performance was especially good for small caps.
Crossroads For The Bull
Many of our historical cycle studies are indicating that the stock market and U.S. economy are now getting past their prime, and may be running on borrowed time.
December Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Demand Strong Going Into 2005
Equity funds with a domestic focus continue to face big competition from their foreign focus counterparts.
A Closer Look At Profit Margins
No matter how you cut it, we don’t expect to see much in the way of margin expansion. Further earnings growth will have to come from top line sales growth.
Did You Have The Right Mix In 2004?
Small Cap Stocks were hands down winners relative to large caps, while just edging out mid caps. This is the fifth consecutive year of small cap superiority.
Profit Margins: It Don’t Get Any Better Than This
Estimated year end profit margins are expected to be at 7.4%, the highest level dating back to at least 1955.
Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Improved, But Still Rated Neutral
Small cap stocks continue to be market leaders in November. Our small cap leadership model had a slight improvement, but is still neutral. On a valuation basis, small caps are no longer attractive, but they still look good on a momentum basis.
Answering Client Questions
Jim Floyd devotes several pages of “Inside The Stock Market” to answer client questions. Included are questions about reported versus operating earning, the impact of inflation on small cap stocks, and our rationale behind our interest rate target among others.
November Mutual Fund Flows...Investor Demand Surges For Stock Funds
Equity funds with a domestic focus made a big comeback in November, posting the largest monthly net inflow since last February. In fact, more money came in during November alone than in the previous four months combined.
January Effect: Now Tends To Arrive In December
The January effect still lives…..it just comes a month earlier in December.
View From The North Country
Steve’s assessment of the current bullish and bearish factors. Also, Leuthold’s recent discussion of secular bear markets, sparked some debate among readers.
The Impact Of Increasing Interest Rates By The Fed
Historically, the first few increases do not have an adverse impact on the stock market on a longer term basis (6 to 12 months). However, stocks do tend to take a hit after the fourth or fifth rate hike on a 6 to 12 month time horizon.
Impressive Select Industries Performance
Performance of the Select Industries Portfolio was very impressive during November (+10.7%), and easily outperformed the S&P 500 (+4.0%).
Playing The Bounce Update: We Are Now In The Traditional “Bounce” Season
These stocks began bouncing in October…..significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and also beating the NASDAQ’s 4.1% October gain.
Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance
An analysis comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.
Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Less Negative, But Still Rated Neutral
We have been proponents of Small Cap stocks since the beginning of the bear market. However, we may be approaching a transition to Large Cap leadership.
October Mutual Fund Flows...Main Street Goes Global
Interest in Foreign Focus Equity funds has been running at near record levels. From a contrarian standpoint, this makes us a little uneasy about the foreign markets.
Perception for the Professional
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