Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Analyzing Large Cap, Mid Cap & Small Cap 2004 Composite Income Statements
2004 earnings very strong but further earnings improvements in 2005 will be largely a function of stronger sales, not any more margin expansions.
2005 S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Revised 2% Lower
Revised 2005 earnings for the S&P 500 down from +10% to +8%. Q4 2004 earnings stronger than anticipated. Will make for tougher comparisons at 2005 year end.
Small Cap Breadth Deterioration…..A Transition To Large Cap Leadership?
Still think Small Caps have leadership position over Large Caps, but it is getting more difficult.
Examining Trends In Mergers & Acquisitions
Heading into 2005, many investors were looking for a pickup in M&A activity.
Mutual Fund Flows...February Cash Flows Rebound
Weekly flow during the month of February mostly followed the trend of the stock market.
View From The North Country
Weighing in on the current stock market positives and negatives currently being discussed by clients and Wall Street strategists.
February Market Action
Right out of the gates, February’s stock market performance quickly erased the declines posted in January. But by month end, the S&P 500 had given back some of the ground gained in the first half.
Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Was Trounced In January
Bounce stocks were trounced in January, especially small caps which plunged 19.3%.
Profit Margins At The Sector Level
Jim Floyd has begun analyzing the profit margins broken down by broad equity sectors. He also looks at some of the factors which may have a specific impact on the margins.
Is January Performance Predictive?
A look at the January barometer, indicates there is not much evidence that a weak January market portends weak performance in the remainder of the year.
Tracking Earnings Expectations…..Still Considered Bullish
Early Q4 earnings comparisons are better than expected, but further improvements in 2005 will largely be a function of better sales, not margin improvement.
January Mutual Fund Flows...Light Flows Are Troubling
It is clear Main Street investors have become more apprehensive about the stock market compared to 12 months ago when confidence was higher.
View From The North Country
Steve Leuthold’s commentary on how he would structure a defensive portfolio.
Leuthold Small Cap Leadership Model: Still Rated Slightly Positive
Small caps continue to be favored over large caps by our Small Cap Leadership Model, despite slightly lagging the large caps in January’s performance.
Take A Wait And See Attitude For February
February sure came in like a bull, with the S&P 500 already up 1.8% through February 4th, while the NASDAQ has risen 1.1%.
2004 Dreams And Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
It would have been a successful strategy to buy the 20 worst sectors from 2003 at the start of 2004.
Large Cap Versus Small Cap
Small caps continue to be the market leaders over large caps. This trend is expected to continue into 2005, as our small cap leadership model has recently improved, and is now rated slightly positive.
View From The North Country
We wish you all a prosperous and happy New Year…..And, let us pray my cautious stock market outlook for 2005 proves to be wrong.
Playing The Bounce Update: So Far, A Very Good Bounce Season
December Bounce performance was especially good for small caps.
Crossroads For The Bull
Many of our historical cycle studies are indicating that the stock market and U.S. economy are now getting past their prime, and may be running on borrowed time.
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