Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

An In Focus Special Research Study sent in late April provides a detailed look at the growth of the ETF industry and endeavors to organize the ETF universe into meaningful categories.

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The stock market spent much of March trying to climb out of the hole dug back on February 27th. But to date, the primary indexes are still below late-February’s cyclical highs.

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Cash acquisitions shrinking U.S. equity share base.

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The numbers tell us that investors have clearly begun to diversify into other asset classes and that the U.S. stock market is no longer the only game in town.

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Steve discusses his opinion of market cycle sin this month’s “View From The North Country”. He is a believer in cycles, but not so sure about rhythmic cycles. Also, his thoughts on the importance of market history.

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Market breadth moved down in tandem with stock market indices, but is not showing any divergences. All advance/decline lines were making new highs just before the downturn, and bull markets do not end with advance/decline data posting new highs.

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Quantitatively, we have found that option trading volumes provide good, contrarian information on investor sentiment toward market groups.

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We have modified our Small Cap and Mid Cap Growth versus Value methodology, improving the algorithm for distinguishing between growth and value to make the components more reflective of these sectors.

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Fresh LBO screen run in February 2007.

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Even though it is entering its sixth year, the Industrial Metals play is not over. It seems to be entering its third and last act, an act that could run for at least another 18 months.

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The $8.1 billion going into open-end U.S. stock funds is a good sign that individual investors had been warming up to the U.S. stock market recently, although recent stock market volatility could change all that.

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Although the markets continued to trend higher for much of the month, the steep losses on February 27th reminded us all again what a good dose of market volatility felt like. Feel better now?

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The S&P 400 Mid Cap index had a tough year in 2006. On the other hand, The Leuthold Group’s Mid Cap Index did very well, up 21% in 2006.

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The U.S. stock market continued to track higher during the first month of the year, despite the fact that individual investors continued to watch from the sidelines.

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The $4.1 billion going into open-end U.S. stock funds is clearly indicating that Main Street investors are entering 2007 with a cautious outlook for the U.S. stock market.

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A look at the GS Scores for the broad Energy sector in light of the recent decline in crude oil prices. Today, only one of the Energy related groups is rated Attractive, while 3 are Neutral and 3 Unattractive.

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Relatively low interest rates combined with strong earnings growth and a build up of corporate cash has created a perfect environment for LBOs. Jim Floyd created a quantitative screen back in February 2006 that attempts to uncover the most attractive LBO stocks.

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To supplement our traditional short interest models, we have developed a long-term, normalized measure of short interest that is intended to “self-adapt” to the institutional changes unfolding in short selling.

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This year’s Bounce faded in December and January, reversing what looked to be an excellent bounce season to just a “so-so” one.

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Doug Ramsey steps in as guest commentator in this month’s “View From The North Country” to highlight what we currently see as the bullish arguments for the stock market and contrast those with the bearish arguments.

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