Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Thanks to weak dollar, foreigners may be buying up Florida vacation homes. The U.S. is now on sale! Making the long term bullish case for a dollar rally against the euro.

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Funds offering exposure to non-U.S. equity asset classes have been seeing a fair amount of net inflow this year, while U.S. equity funds have been mostly ignored.

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With this category now breaking into negative territory, we thought it would be interesting to look back at the other periods when the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category shifted from a positive net reading to negative.

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Now could be the time to get in before markets fully discount the potential growth and better assess the risk.

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Performance of today’s Financial sector is somewhat tracking the performance during the S&L crisis. Paints bleak picture of what may lie ahead.

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Bad breadth is a global concern. It may come as a surprise that foreign breadth is actually weaker than U.S. readings.

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October marked new all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials, while mid and small cap indexes like the Russell 2000, S&P 600 and S&P Mid Cap indexes, tested, but failed to take out their July-2007 highs.

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Leuthold’s equity portfolios—and especially our global portfolio—have capitalized on the past few months’ surge in commodities and other basic industries.

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Small Cap outlook continues to deteriorate. Despite recent underperformance, valuation premium is not shrinking.

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Not all gloom and doom this month...Homebuilders approaching window where past busted bubbles have bounced.

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Relative valuations seem to support a continuation of energy stock strength.

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We have had some concerns about playing the bounce this year. The stock market has absorbed (ignored) an abundance of bad news only to move higher, placing its faith in further Fed rate cuts.

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Fed rate cuts not reaching intended targets. Commodity groups caught fire after the initial August 17^th cut and continue to be strong. Meanwhile financial institutions and consumer related groups continue to languish.

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U.S. focus equity mutual funds outflow now within striking distance of the all-time record outflow of $25 billion for all of 2002.

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Mega Cap stocks (largest 50) derived 47% of income from foreign sources in 2006, up from 37% in 2000. Small/Micro cap stocks received just 15%-20% of income from foreign sources in 2006.

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Steve's commentary on the stock market's Wall of Worry, the oil patch and mining company squeeze, the abusurdity of corn to ethanol and the world's most valuable companies.

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Despite a respectable S&P 500 gain of 18% over this eighteen month period, it appears Main Street investors want little to do with the domestic stock market.

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Although the general tone of the markets improved in September, we continue to see signs that recent strength may not have a lot of foundation or staying power.

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Discussion of what it would take to push the ratio to positive ground, looking at the individual indicators that have heavier weights, which could potentially improve rather quickly under certain conditions.

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It’s that time of year when we roll out the annual “Playing The Bounce” strategy.

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