S&P 500

We somehow missed this signal in January, perhaps because we were pre-occupied with so many other signs of “climate change.”

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At the risk of yelling “fire” in a crowded theater, we present a few parallels between recent action and the year leading up to the October 1987 crash.

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Things were bigger when you were a kid. Like that enormous sweatshirt your aunt gave you for your birthday or that hand-me-down ten-speed bike with the cross bar taller than your shoulders.

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The remarkable stock market breadth and momentum chronicled in these pages doesn’t come without a price.

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During the first four trading days of 2018, the S&P 500 managed to match its 93-year average annual real price gain of +2.6%.

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We observed in July that at an age when most bull markets are prepared to see the mortician, this one still seems to need a pediatrician. And five months later, the bull is acting as immature as ever!

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The stock market has disregarded any and all caution flags throughout 2017, and the consensus is that it will continue do so through year-end.

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Years ago, Monty Python’s classic comedy sketch introduced us to the Department of Redundancy Department.

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The Equal Weighted S&P 500 now trails the S&P 500 by 400 basis points YTD, and the rally is increasingly assailed as too narrow.

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Stock market bears had a field day when the latest Investors Intelligence sentiment survey (Chart 1) saw the percentage of bullish newsletter writers spike to its “highest level since 1987.”

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Bobby Knight thought coaching would be perfect “if it weren’t for those damned games.”

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While this year’s rally has been a broad, “equal opportunity” affair, some of the weakest relative action we’ve observed has—oddly enough—been among equal-weighted stock market indexes. Equal-weighted indexes for Large, Mid, and Small Caps are all trailing their cap-weighted counterparts year-to-date, and the gap for the S&P 500 is now almost 400 basis points after an especially bad October.

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While the bull possesses a seemingly endless supply of energy, the Leuthold database still houses a supply of measures by which the bull market has fallen short.

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The stock market is often maligned as a poor economic forecaster, and it’s true the market has predicted several more recessions than have actually occurred.

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Before the markets punish an irresponsible act, they must first reward it.

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We just completed a simple study for those market bulls who might find themselves temporarily lacking in confidence (assuming such an animal isn’t extinct by now).

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The end of August means the second quarter earnings season is almost in the books.

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In April 1964, the Beatles simultaneously held the top-five spots on the Billboard Hot 100, a unique feat in the history of modern music.

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Does the stock market’s first half performance tell us anything about its likely path in the second half? Not on the face of it.

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Traders like to say there’s nothing more bullish than a new price high, but not all new highs are created equal.

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