Major Trend Index
Major Trend Ticks Up A Bit In September
The Major Trend Index rose 0.04 to 1.16 during the month of September, remaining in a range we consider moderately bullish.
Major Trend Positive But Slips To 1.16
The Major Trend Index declined 0.05 to 1.16 in the week ended September 27th, but it remains a safe distance above its 0.95-1.05 neutral zone.
Major Trend Index Rises To 1.21
Last week’s surge to new bull market highs had a more muted impact than we expected on the Major Trend Index.
Major Trend Index - September 19, 2013
The Major Trend Index rose a solid 0.08 to 1.20 in the week ending September 13, with three of the five indicator categories recording gains. Stock markets that are “in gear” are generally not at risk of making an imminent cyclical peak.
Major Trend In A “Mildly Bullish” Holding Pattern
The Major Trend Index changed little in the face of August’s market weakness, closing the first week of September at a mildly bullish 1.12. During the month there were no changes to the targeted net equity exposure of 60% in the Core and Global Funds.
Major Trend Index - August 2013
As discussed last month, the Major Trend Index has experienced a bout of volatility in 2013 that is not uncommon for a late-stage cyclical bull market. Since April, the MTI has twice dipped to the Neutral zone, but both moves were ultimately aborted as the stock market moved to new cyclical highs.
MTI Returns To Positive Ground… The Bull Market Grinds On
April’s temporary drop in the Major Trend Index to Neutral status now appears to have simply been a false alarm. The MTI reverted to a bullish stance with the reading for the week ended May 10th, and closed the month at a moderately bullish 1.16.
Major Trend Index Still Negative
The basic message is unchanged since early March 1994.
Sorry, Major Trend Index Shifts Back To "Negative"
After ten weeks of borderline "Neutral” readings, our weight of the evidence Major Trend Index shifted back down into the "NEGATIVE" zone with the March 1 calculation. So what did the market do the next day? It scored a 45 point gain in the DJIA, with the other market averages up a little more than 1%. At this point, with the Index back in "Negative” territory, we will probably do more defensive selling if this new surge carries significantly higher.
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