Major Trend Index
MTI: No Significant Swings Among Factor Categories
The Major Trend Index rose 0.02 points to a ratio of 1.14 for the week ended December 23th, with no significant swings within the five factor categories. While the Intrinsic Value work reached another new extreme for the bull market, the balance of the MTI suggests that the category is likely to erode even further before this old bull finally gives up the ghost. Our tactical funds remain positioned with net equity exposure of 64%.
Technical Work Pulls MTI Lower
The Major Trend Index fell 0.05 points to ratio of 1.12 for the week ended December 16th, with a moderate loss in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category responsible for most of the decline. Net equity exposure in our tactical portfolios is unchanged at 63-64%.
MTI: Market Breadth Is Strong
The Major Trend Index increased 0.05 points to ratio of 1.17 for the week ended December 9th, led by the largest one-week gain in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category since mid-July. Some developments contributing to that gain were detailed in last Friday’s “Chart of the Week,” and suggest that a final bull market high is unlikely to be made during the next three to six months. Our tactical portfolios remain positioned with net equity exposure of 63-64%.
MTI Drops Sharply
The latest Major Trend Index report.
New Breadth Highs For S&P Broad Indexes
Click to read the latest Major Trend Index report.
MTI Positive; Market Indexes Hit New Bull Market Highs
The Major Trend Index dropped 0.04 to a ratio of 1.16 based on data for the week ended November 18th. It was pulled lower by small to moderate losses within each of its five indicator categories. Despite the MTI’s decline from the high levels that persisted throughout much of the fall, this “weight of the evidence” approach remains bullish for the stock market. Our tactical funds continue to target net equity exposure of 63-64%.
MTI Rose 0.01 Points To 1.20
The Major Trend Index rose 0.01 points to 1.20 in the week ended November 11th, with big swings within the MTI’s five factor categories essentially cancelling one another out. Net equity exposure in the Core and Global Funds remains at its 63% target, with no changes made in recent weeks. It’s clear, as one pundit put it, investors are betting on “tax-cut Trump” rather than “trade-war” Trump.
MTI Dropped 0.08 Points To 1.19
The Major Trend Index dropped 0.08 points to a ratio of 1.19 in the week ended November 4th, ending a three-month streak of readings above the 1.20 threshold. Nonetheless, the work remains decisively bullish, and we’ve made no recent adjustments to our tactical funds’ targeted net equity exposure level of 63%.
MTI Closes October Healthy
The Major Trend Index closed October flat at its month-earlier reading of 1.27.
MTI Positive, Technicals Still Strong
The Major Trend Index fell 0.02 to a ratio of 1.27 for the week ended October 28, 2016. Movements within the indicator categories continued the trend of recent weeks, in which losses in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence work have been almost entirely offset by gains elsewhere.
MTI Declined 0.01 Points To 1.29
The Major Trend Index declined 0.01 points to a ratio of 1.29 in the week ended October 21st, marking the 12th consecutive week the Index has been above the 1.20 level.
MTI Remains Strong
The Major Trend Index declined 0.01 to a ratio of 1.30 for the week ended October 14th. Large swings in the Attitudinal and Momentum/Breadth/Divergence categories largely cancelled one another out, and the remaining three categories were essentially flat.
MTI Rose 0.04 Points To 1.31
The Major Trend Index rose 0.04 points to a new post-correction high ratio of 1.31 for the week ended October 7th. This work continues to support above-average exposure to the stock market, and the Leuthold Core and Global Funds are both positioned with 63% in equities.
MTI Stable At Bullish Levels Throughout September
Overall, this work supports a constructive intermediate-term stance toward stocks; our tactical portfolios are positioned with equity exposure of 63%—a posture we consider aggressive given the relative maturity of both the economic expansion and the cyclical bull market.
MTI Still Stable At Bullish Level
The Major Trend Index edged up 0.02 to a ratio of 1.27 for the week ended September 30th, remaining within a narrow but decisively bullish band between the 1.20-1.30 level for the ninth consecutive week.
Major Trend Index Down 0.04 To 1.25
Small losses in four of its five categories drove the Major Trend Index down 0.04 to a ratio of 1.25 in the week ended September 23rd. Overall, the weight of the stock market evidence continues to tilt bullish and our tactical portfolios remain fairly aggressive positioned with net equity exposure of 63%.
MTI Constructive Toward Stocks; 1.29 Ratio
The Major Trend Index rose 0.05 to a ratio of 1.29 in the week ended September 16th, representing another new high for the rally that began in February. Moderate gains in Supply/Demand and Momentum/Breadth/Divergence categories were behind the improvement.
MTI Positive, Little Change From Prior Week
Last Friday’s stock market air pocket had little impact on the Major Trend Index, which remained in moderately bullish territory at 1.24 after a weekly decline of 0.02. Swings within the five categories were muted despite the rise in stock and bond market volatility.
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