Major Trend Index
MTI Enters September At 3 1/2-Year High
The Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category remains the key driver behind the MTI’s resurgence; that category’s latest net reading of +1028 is the most bullish since May 2010.
MTI Remains Positive
The Major Trend Index remained firmly in positive territory for the week ended August 26th, dropping 0.02 points to a reading of 1.22. Net equity exposure in both the Leuthold Core and Global Funds remains unchanged at its recent level of 61%.
MTI Comfortably Positive
The Major Trend Index rose 0.01 to a ratio of 1.24 based on data through the week ended August 19th. This is comfortably above the MTI neutral zone of 0.95-1.05 and supports our tactical funds’ 60% exposure to equities.
MTI Positive; Small Net Change Week Over Week
The Major Trend Index increased 0.01 to a ratio of 1.23, based on data for the week ended August 12th; a big gain in the Economic category was mostly offset by small losses elsewhere. Overall, we’re impressed that the MTI has been able to carry as far as it has into the positive zone despite the increasing resistance provided by both the Intrinsic Value and Attitudinal categories.
MTI At New Recovery-High Ratio
The Major Trend Index jumped 0.08 to a new recovery-high ratio of 1.22 based on data for the week ended August 5th; the improvement was led by another big gain in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category. All sub-models relating to Financial industry groups were upgraded in the past week, and Low Volatility stocks’ grip on market leadership has weakened somewhat over the past several trading days. Both are viewed as market positives.
MTI Returned To A Moderately Bullish Stance
Tactical equity exposure raised to 60-61%, however, our enthusiasm is tempered by high domestic valuations and other evidence that the expansion and associated 7 1/2-year bull market are very mature.
MTI Ratio Up Slightly; Remains Moderately Bullish
Based on data for the week ended July 22nd, the Major Trend Index ticked up 0.01 to a new recovery high ratio of 1.15, reflecting mostly offsetting movements within the five indicator categories.
Breadth Data Suggests Higher Highs Next 3-6 Months
Again driven by a large gain in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category, the Major Trend Index tacked on another 0.05 points to land at a moderately bullish ratio of 1.14 based on data for the week ended July 15th.
MTI Back To Positive; Equity Hedge Removed
After two weeks in the high neutral zone, the Major Trend Index returned to bullish territory based on data through the week ended July 8th.
MTI Dips To High Neutral
We’ll know soon if the recent dip into “Neutral” was nothing more than a news-driven “whipsaw.” But we want to make clear that the MTI decline reflects more than just the Brexit-related market action.
MTI Remains At Neutral
The Major Trend Index edged up 0.02 points to a ratio of 1.04, using data through the week ended July 1st, and remains within its 0.95-1.05 neutral zone for the second consecutive week.
MTI Falls To Neutral
The Major Trend Index fell 0.12 to a Neutral ratio of 1.02 based on data for the week ended June 24th, led entirely by a decline in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category.
MTI Weakened; Ratio Still Bullish
The Major Trend Index fell 0.07 to a ratio of 1.14 based on data for the week ended June 17th, reflecting another sizable weekly decline in the Attitudinal category.
MTI Down 0.03 Points To A Ratio Of 1.21
The Major Trend Index edged down 0.03 points to a ratio of 1.21 based on data for the week ended June 10th, triggered mainly by an 80-point drop in the Attitudinal category.
MTI Moves Further Into Bull Territory
We’re fully cognizant that it’s not a “textbook” time to raise exposure, however, outside of valuations, the balance of our MTI work suggests the market still holds some cyclical appeal.
MTI Pushes To 3-Year High
The Major Trend Index pushed further into bullish territory based on data through last week, rising 0.09 points to a three-year high 1.22 ratio. Improvement in both the Momentum and Economic categories drove the gain. In addition, there were positive developments based on yesterday’s month-end prices that will be captured in the next MTI reading.
MTI Positive; Few Changes Among Category Readings
The Major Trend Index remained in moderately bullish territory, falling 0.03 points based on data through last week. A 75-point loss in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence work was the only outsized move among the five indicator groupings. This category, however, remains the strongest pillar underlying the MTI with a current net reading of +440.
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