Major Trend Index

• Read more

The Major Trend Index declined 0.02 points to a ratio of 0.98, reflecting small losses in three of its five categories. 

• Read more

• Read more

The MTI dropped to Neutral in July and net equity exposure was reduced to 55% in the Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios (this is down from the 61% target of recent months).

• Read more

• Read more

• Read more

• Read more

The Major Trend Index rose 0.02 to 1.10 last week, largely on the back of a 46-point jump in the Economic/Interest Rates/Inflation category. Despite the cyclical concerns we’ve detailed at length in the last few Green Books, the MTI—and stocks—refuse to give up the ghost, and the Core and Global Funds remain positioned with net equity exposure of 61%.

• Read more

The MTI dropped to 1.08 in May, despite a move by the DJIA and S&P 500 to new cycle highs. Net equity exposure remains around 61% in the Core and Global Funds.

• Read more

The Major Trend Index dropped 0.02 to 1.11 in the week ended May 22nd, triggered mainly by a 36-point decline in the Supply/Demand category. While the MTI’s cushion relative to its 0.95-1.05 neutral zone has shrunk from a late-April high of 1.20, it continues to support a bullish near-term case for the stock market. Both the Core and Global Funds remain positioned with net equity exposure of 61%.

• Read more

The Major Trend Index dropped 0.03 to 1.13 in the week ended May 15th, led by losses in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence and Supply/Demand categories. The S&P 500 closed at new bull market highs in three of the last five trading days, but the breadth and leadership trends underlying those highs are more consistent with a tiring market up leg than a sudden acceleration higher. Still, the combined evidence is enough to keep us postured with net equity exposure of 61% in the Core and Global Funds.

• Read more

The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a moderately bullish reading of 1.16 using data for the week ended May 8th, with none of the five component categories recording a weekly change of over 24 points. Both the Core and Global Funds are positioned with net equity exposure of 61%, unchanged from the previous week.

• Read more

New S&P 500 bull market high on April 24^th confirmed by all manner of traditionally leading indicants.

• Read more

The Major Trend Index jumped 0.07 to a 13-month high of 1.20 in the week ended April 24th, suggesting that last Friday’s new cyclical bull market high in the S&P 500 should be improved upon in coming months (despite our ongoing valuation concerns). Our tactical strategies remain positioned with net equity exposure of 58%.

• Read more

The Major Trend Index dropped 0.02 to a still-bullish 1.13 last week, with losses in the Supply/Demand and Momentum work edging out modest gains in the Economic and Attitudinal categories. Net equity exposure in the Core and Global Funds remains unchanged at 58% following last week’s 3% increase, and the path of least resistance in the immediate term remains up.

• Read more

The Major Trend Index rose 0.06 last week to a 10-month high of 1.15, led by a 95-point jump in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category. The improvement in the MTI and supporting analyses prompted us to cover a small (3%) short position in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, bringing net equity exposure in both the Core and Global Funds up to 58% from 55% a week ago.

• Read more

The Major Trend Index fluctuated within a tight band during the last five weeks and closed the week of April 3rd at a mildly positive 1.09, down from 1.11 at the end of February.

• Read more

The Major Trend Index fell 0.02 to 1.07 in the latest week, led by moderate losses in the Supply/Demand and Momentum/Breadth/Divergence work. Net equity exposure in both the Core and Global Funds continues to target the 55% level.

• Read more

The Major Trend Index continues to levitate just above its neutral zone, closing the week of March 20th up 0.03 to 1.09. While this work is not as emphatic as we would like, it remains enough to keep us postured with net equity exposure of 55% in both the Core and Global Funds.

• Read more

MTI Down 0.01 to 1.06 - Just Above Neutral Zone

• Read more