Major Trend Index
Major Trend Bearish, But “Off Its Lows”
The Major Trend Index broke into negative territory shortly after the August Green Book was released, with an initial bearish reading of 0.90, based on data for the week ended August 7th. That move prompted us to cut net equity exposure in tactical accounts to 38% (down from 48%); ensuing market action trimmed net exposure in the Leuthold Core and Global Funds to about 35% by September 8th.
Major Trend Index Falls Further
The Major Trend Index fell a bit further into negative territory in the week ended August 14th, dropping 0.02 to 0.88.
Major Trend Index declined to NEGATIVE at 0.90
Based on data for the week ended August 7th, the Major Trend Index dropped to a NEGATIVE reading of 0.90, led by declines in both the Attitudinal and Momentum/Breadth/Divergence work.
MTI At Low End Of Neutral - Equities Hedged Further
The MTI is holding just above the Negative zone and net equity exposure was reduced to 48-49% in the Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios (from 55% in early July, and 61-62% in June).
MTI Not Ready To Make Up Its Mind - Still Neutral
The Major Trend Index declined 0.02 points to a ratio of 0.98, reflecting small losses in three of its five categories.
MTI Opens July With Slide To Neutral
The MTI dropped to Neutral in July and net equity exposure was reduced to 55% in the Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios (this is down from the 61% target of recent months).
MTI Rose 0.02 to 1.10 Data For Week Ended June 5, 2015
The Major Trend Index rose 0.02 to 1.10 last week, largely on the back of a 46-point jump in the Economic/Interest Rates/Inflation category. Despite the cyclical concerns we’ve detailed at length in the last few Green Books, the MTI—and stocks—refuse to give up the ghost, and the Core and Global Funds remain positioned with net equity exposure of 61%.
MTI Declines In May Despite New Market Highs
The MTI dropped to 1.08 in May, despite a move by the DJIA and S&P 500 to new cycle highs. Net equity exposure remains around 61% in the Core and Global Funds.
MTI Dropped 0.02 to 1.11 Data For Week Ended May 22, 2015
The Major Trend Index dropped 0.02 to 1.11 in the week ended May 22nd, triggered mainly by a 36-point decline in the Supply/Demand category. While the MTI’s cushion relative to its 0.95-1.05 neutral zone has shrunk from a late-April high of 1.20, it continues to support a bullish near-term case for the stock market. Both the Core and Global Funds remain positioned with net equity exposure of 61%.
MTI Dropped 0.03 to 1.13 Led by Losses in Momentum/Breadth/Divergence & Supply/Demand
The Major Trend Index dropped 0.03 to 1.13 in the week ended May 15th, led by losses in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence and Supply/Demand categories. The S&P 500 closed at new bull market highs in three of the last five trading days, but the breadth and leadership trends underlying those highs are more consistent with a tiring market up leg than a sudden acceleration higher. Still, the combined evidence is enough to keep us postured with net equity exposure of 61% in the Core and Global Funds.
MTI Unchanged At A Moderately Bullish Reading of 1.16
The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a moderately bullish reading of 1.16 using data for the week ended May 8th, with none of the five component categories recording a weekly change of over 24 points. Both the Core and Global Funds are positioned with net equity exposure of 61%, unchanged from the previous week.
MTI Spikes To 13-Month High In April
New S&P 500 bull market high on April 24th confirmed by all manner of traditionally leading indicants.
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