MTI
Major Trend Index Still Negative….But July Market Action Improved
Major Trend remains in negative territory but market action (both stocks and bonds) improved in July. Short term, both stocks and bonds may continue to rally.
Major Trend Index Remains Negative
Major Trend moves deeper into negative territory...Commodity Diffusion Index move above 70% does not inspire us either.
1994: A Dull Summer?
Downside equity market risk viewed as significant: still believe 90% probability we are in early stages of a bear market. Could be a dull summer?
Major Trend Index Still Says Bear
Major Trend still in "negative" territory and continues to deteriorate. Downside equity market risk viewed as significant.
Major Trend Index Even More Negative
Major Trend Index turned "negative" March 8 and has continued to deteriorate.
Major Trend Index Fades to Neutral
Major Trend Index drops back to "neutral" territory. Don't jump the gun and assume the Index will fall to "negative".
Major Trend Index Improves Significantly In January
Major Trend Index moved now comfortably back in positive territory. 96 point decline February 4th is probably setting up a good tactical buying opportunity.
Major Trend Index Remains Neutral
The U.S. stock market environment seems to be pretty much a continuation of the 1993 frolics, big new supply and continued institutional buying as professionals invest new cash flow from individual investors who don't know that Wall Street can be a two way street.
Major Trend Index Slips To Neutral
Yes, there are more negative points than positive points, but the margin is not enough to be considered a sell signal. Don’t jump the gun.
Slight Deterioration, But Major Trend Index Still Positive
As of October 29 the Major Trend had deteriorated to a level of 1.10. Despite this small deterioration, the Major Trend remains in positive ground, so both models will continue to maintain their more aggressive equity exposure.
Major Trend Index Edges Into Positive Territory
Are you surprised? We certainly were. The Major Trend Index has moved slightly above the neutral no man's land, but not by much.
Long Term Message Remains: Caution
As of the May 3 tabulation of the Major Trend Index, the caution flag remains flying.
Major Trend Index More Negative
The Major Trend Index deteriorated in March. This calculation was done prior to the Phillip Morris debacle. I'm rather sure the upcoming April 5 calculation will not be any better.
Major Trend Index Improved, But Still Negative
The most recent calculation of the Major Trend Index (Nov. 2) shows improvement from a month ago, but remains NEGATIVE on balance. Thus, we continue to advocate a high level of caution toward the U.S. stock market.
For Those Who Want To Dig Deeper: The Major Trend Index
The Major Trend Index is really the backbone of our stock market analysis at The Leuthold Group. Prompted by a number of client questions in recent months, Andy Engel has broken apart the Major Trend Index and analyzed each of the five broad categories separately.
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