MTI

Based on NIPA Corporate Profits, the S&P 500 is now relatively cheap based on the prior 1956 to date history.

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Major Trend Index improved to Neutral in early April and clinging there now.  Are we seeing a delayed bear market rally?  Examining what could come next.

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Attitudinal category now very positive reflecting excess bearishness which typically comes near market bottoms.

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Market has so far performed pretty much as expected. Major Trend still Negative, but recent improvement is surprising. Bear market could be winding down.

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First, let us be thankful February 29th only occurs every four years. No, we haven’t done a historical performance analysis of past leap year extra days, but you can be certain somebody now has. Whatever, it was a bad end to February 2008.

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In looking at Contrarian indicators compared to past major market lows, it seems today’s market has more room on the downside.

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Major Trend Index remains Negative; assume the cyclical bear market prevails, but we increased net equity exposure. Why?

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With this category now breaking into negative territory, we thought it would be interesting to look back at the other periods when the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category shifted from a positive net reading to negative.

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Discussion of what it would take to push the ratio to positive ground, looking at the individual indicators that have heavier weights, which could potentially improve rather quickly under certain conditions.

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Steve Leuthold revisits the 1987 stock market, and includes some excerpts of his commentary in the Green Book from the months leading up to the October crash. There are some stunning similarities to today’s market. Also, commentary on the current China stock market. Some have compared it to Japan in the late 1980s, but there are distinct differences.

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Despite the stronger stock market, there continues to be a healthy degree of bearish sentiment prevalent in today’s market.

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Small Caps significant laggards in July, and technicals which had been supporting Small Caps, despite excessive valuations, have now eroded. Small Cap leadership model now negative.

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The persistent rise in short term rates could have a big impact on the consumer. The rising prime rate has boosted debt service costs substantially, and “Financial Death Traps” may be on the horizon.

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Metals stocks have already had a good strong run, and have been held in our portfolio for four years now. Despite the strong gains there is still significant upside when looking at inflation adjusted prices, and the strong demand/limited supply.

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Introducing the newest member of the Leuthold Research Team, Doug Ramsey. Also, a discussion on what could push the Major Trend Index back to positive territory and

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A detailed explanation about the decline in the Major Trend Index, which is primarily due to deterioration in the Economic/Interest Rates/Inflation category (rising inflation pressures) and a loss for the Supply/Demand components.

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Steve Leuthold lays out both the bullish and bearish stock market cases.

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This annual exercise is a critical examination of our research effort for the year...presenting both the things we did well and also those things we didn’t do so well.

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An in depth discussion of market sentiment...At present, it is a real mixed bag, there is no clear cut consensus.

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A comparison of today’s market conditions compared to one year ago. We look at valuations, sentiment, group leadership and Major Trend categories.

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