MTI
Believe It Or Not, New Highs
Steps are falling into place for the U.S. market to climb another 15-20% into 2012.
Two Down… One To Go?
Doug Ramsey highlights the “point of recognition” in this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section. This is the point of maximum market upthrust, the point at which even hardened pessimists become convinced that the economic recovery and bull market are for real.
2010: Better Than It Felt
2010 was better than it felt for the equity markets, but while 2011 may be better for the economy, it might not be as strong for the equity markets. Could the bull market be running out of milestones?
It’s Been Better Than It’s “Felt”
The latest bull market has now essentially matched the returns for all bull market recoveries dating back to 1900. Remarkably, it has accomplished this in only half the normal time frame.
Back Aboard The Bull
Major Trend Index now Positive (both global and domestic). Even though we are bullish, there are several bullish arguments that we still don’t buy.
Major Trend More Bearish As Market Enters Historically Weakest Month
August turned out to be a very volatile month, not the “doldrums” that many investors would have wanted to see during this traditional summer vacation month. Budding optimism that had developed in investors back in April has now apparently been completely washed out by the poor August performance.
Buckle Up For The “Doldrums”
Beware summer doldrums, August has a knack of sometimes being a crazy month. Market continues to be viewed as being in a severe correction mode, rather than a full fledged bear market.
Major Trend Negative… Paring Stock Exposure
Major Trend Index has big decline in early July, bringing ratio all the way down to negative ground.
Quick Takes From The Valuation Dashboard
Stock market valuations no longer cheap, but they are also not yet truly expensive. Eric Bjorgen isolates several valuation measures to show just where they rank historically
The Dreaded ‘Aha’ Moment
One of the great contrary trades in recent memory may well have been the Consumer Discretionary stocks during the last recession and early in the recovery. The consumer had been written off, but these stocks have been the clear market leader. It looks, however, like the move may be running out of steam.
Despite January, Big Picture Still Bullish
Don’t think we’ve seen a cyclical top, because that would mean everything essentially topped at the same time. Breadth has yet to peak in this cycle and that is one reason we expect the market to move higher over the near term.
Asset Allocation: Still Heavy In Equities
Initial outlook for 2010 is to see the S&P 500 rise to 1300 or 1350 during the first half of the year but then give up those gains in the second half of the year. We are counting on the Major Trend Index to help navigate the choppy market.
Symptoms of a Maturing Bull Market—Assessing Potential Remaining Upside
In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, Eric and Doug put the current market in historical context. They use a variety of factors to assess the potential for further upside.
Was It “Easy Money” All Along?
The “easy money”—at least psychologically— may still be ahead for some. Money continues to move out of U.S. equity mutual funds, and there is still skepticism about the stock market.
Six Months Old And Still Seeking Respect
Doug Ramsey demonstrates that new bull markets can be expected to correct by 10% or more at some point — which may be why so many pundants are looking for a correction now. Past history shows that based on duration it would be early in the current bull market for a correction at this time, but based on magnitude, the timing would be about right.
Back From The Brink
The “Fail-Safe” mechanism was removed in mid-March, after market action moved above the re-entry point.
Back To A Less Aggressive Equity Exposure
The “Fail-Safe” was triggered by the poor market action at the end of February, and we are moving towards a 50% net equity exposure. Caution seems prudent despite the Major Trend Index remaining in positive territory.
August Market Action
The broad market continued to trace out a labored recovery from the July lows, yet the day to day performance volatility continued to keep many market participants from getting too comfortable with the trend.
The Major Trend Index...Gone Global
Comparing and contrasting our traditional Major Trend Index and the Global Major Trend Index. Both are now Neutral, but the Global version is showing better valuations and worse technical scores.
Major Trend Fades To Neutral During June Massacre
Well, now it’s officially a bear market. But readers should realize that since bear markets typically decline 28%, the bear is likely at least two-thirds over.
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