MTI

Buying opportunity at hand. Stock market professionals should be anticipating, not reacting. Today, I view current market malaise as a potentially outstanding buying opportunity.

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Short sellers posted the only solid performance numbers this month. August lows may approach July’s, but a rebound may be around the corner. …..Make sure to take the cell phone to the beach, as the market has a habit of interrupting the beach holiday.

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Last month’s caution proved to be unwarranted. Would now be described as a bull with reservations. Steve's outline of his bullish case including predictions from “the managing director’s crystal ball”.

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Modifications to Major Trend Index improve reading, but MTI is still very negative.

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Year 2000 Q1 is history. Initially technology ruled, but “old economy” stocks revived late in the quarter, although it looked for a while like they might be terminal. But, you want to know what I think will happen now.

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Hot market in December with many tech groups up 20%+ and one-fourth of Leuthold’s groups posting double digit gains...as Y2K fears diminished, the market  momentum built.

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Leuthold broad tech sector up 17% in November! But, only three of our other nine broad sectors managed decent gains for the month. Watch January, Fed could tighten in a hurry and raise rates.

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Halloween belongs to the bulls, but November could be a turkey....Major Trend Index turned more negative in October. Steve gives his reasons for shorting.

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Steve thinks too many people are looking for an Octber train wreck for it to happen, maybe in November. Market currently very short term oversold.

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September-October, two months to be wary of.

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What happened to the markets in July?..…No obvious major factor for decline. The daily stock market chart of July 1999 is close to a carbon copy of July 1998. Will history repeat itself in August? Let’s hope not.

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Just as many plan sponsors throw in the towel, active managers pull a great quarter out of their collective hat. What's in store for the second half of 1999?

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I don’t ever recall seeing a month with such a sudden and dramatic change in market character, at least not in terms of sector and group leadership.

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Back on sidelines again, Major Trend Index negative. Stage being set for a huge small cap market.

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The public is back as evidenced by strong mutual fund cash inflows. Seasonally strong Q1 mutual fund inflows should push the DJIA above 10,000. Traditional “January Effect” may be absent again in 1999, as it has previous four years.

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Major Trend Index improved to Neutral but not offering any guidance as to whether this is a bear market rally or a bull market.

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September the best month of a terrible quarter. October could present some opportunities.. This could be an exceptional bounce year.  Major Trend remains Negative. Recommended strategy: Maintain maximum allowable defensive equity.

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August’s decline was the largest monthly decline since October 1987. Recommended Client Strategy: maintain most defensive equity stance available - if cash is not an option, concentrate in defensive equity sectors.

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Major Trend back to Negative...Both Asset Allocation Portfolios shifted to their most defensive posture ever. Steve's judgements and opinions on major stock market positives and negatives.

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On June 22, clients received an Interim Memo noting that our composite Major Trend Index had slipped to Negative status. The subsequent calculation lost a few more points and remains marginally negative.

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