MTI
The Not So Merry Month of May
May was malicious for most portfolio managers. Despite just modest declines for the S&P 500 and DJIA, 80% of Leuthold sectors were down more.
Major Trend Index is Neutral
The strong and broad May stock market moved the multi-factor Major Trend Index discipline up from Negative to Neutral status.
Major Trend Index Positive…Again
Major Trend now Positive, with ratio of 1.16...Biggest bull market in history rolls on, pushing farther above past valuation extremes. Key client questions on stock market and Major Trend answered.
Interim Memo: Major Trend Index Turns Negative
Major Trend turned negative March 24th...Clients notified via Interim Memo. Bull market topping out or possibly already has. Market breadth measures signaling significant market deterioration.
Year-End Cross Currents Start Early
While September was a surprisingly strong month, October was just confusing. Year-end cross currents seem to have started early this year. Major Trend Index now just barely in neutral territory with a ratio of 0.95.
A September Surprise (To Me)
September a surprisingly strong month, with 4%-5% gains for most market indices. Significant MTI improvement, but still a ways from Neutral.
August: Few Surprises
The stock market performed pretty much as expected in August, although experiencing a somewhat unusual fade at month end. Major Trend remains negative. Some improvement but still a long way from Neutral.
A Major Market Top in the Making
Since turning negative on July 2, the Major Trend Index has deteriorated very rapidly. Major stock market top now seems to be developing. There are now five stock market positives and seven negatives.
What Has Changed Since February 2, 1996?
Comparison between February 2, 1996 Major Trend (when we last went positive) and today’s calculation shows the shift primarily driven by Economic/Monetary/Inflation (higher interest rates), and by the Supply/Demand category.
Major Trend Index Fades to Negative Status
Factors affecting shift in Major Trend: fade in market momentum...decline of cash flow into U.S. focus equity funds...vast new supply of equities. Despite modifications to help adjust for this “new era” environment, it wasn’t enough to offset current negatives.
On the Borderline
Major Trend close to reverting to negative status with ratio at 0.95. Shades of 1968, that great speculative garbage market. 1996 is looking like a replay...it’s just like old times...greed, excitement, performance chasing, and no earnings IPO’s.
Leuthold Major Trend Index: Revisions Are Overdue
Major Trend Index modification will be made this week...weights of two mutual fund inflow components will be doubled due to their significance.
So Far, a Not So Happy New Year
What we will do if the Major Trend Index turns positive (it moved to neutral)?
Still Watching the Bull Market Go By Us
Who's leading the bull market charge? Unsophisticated investors?
What Is Wrong with the Major Trend Index: Some Current Thoughts
At this point, it’s quite disappointing as to how the Major Trend Index work has functioned, especially in the past several months. It appears that too much lead time may have crept into the overall discipline.
Leuthold Major Trend Guide Malfunctioning?
Equities now at 24%—below normal minimums. Valuations still look excessive. Major Trend improved, but still negative. Is it 1987 revisited, or a “new era”? It could be different this time, for a while.
Reducing Equities Below Normal Minimum
Reducing equities below normal minimum for the first time since the summer of 1987. Intrinsic Value work is now quite overvalued and approaching 1987 peak valuations. However, a 1987 type crash is not expected.
Major Trend Index Remains Negative
Bond market decline may be in final stages, but stock market can still fall 25%, even if bonds stabilize in coming months.
Major Trend Deteriorates In September, Remains Negative
Major Trend Index deteriorated by 591 points in September, and remains quite decisively in negative territory. We continue to approach equity investing with a great deal of caution, operating in a bear market mode.
Major Trend Index Improved, But Still Negative
It still looks like a bear market to us or, at minimum, an old bull market that is topping out.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
