MTI
Ringing In The New Year On A Wide Range Of Topics
Did we just get a Technical “all clear” sign? Is the trading day getting you down? What about corporate earnings, or sovereign debt and the stock market?
Major Trend Undergoes Revisions
We have chosen to have the original MTI “subsume” many critical global measures, and put all of our best efforts into a single tool monitoring the overall stock market environment.
Stock Market Observations
The U.S. bull market is mature and I believe the odds are better than even that 2013 will see a cyclical top.
Sentiment And “Seasonals” Collide
Stock market sentiment is overheated, at least on a short-term basis. But does excessively optimistic market sentiment lead to worse September-October market action? Yes it does, but the observations are limited.
Major Trend Index Fading As “That Time Of Year” Looms
With “That Time Of Year” approaching and the Major Trend Index not too far above the neutral zone, we review nine factors impacting the stock market from a glass-half-empty perspective.
An “Oversold” Market Turns Up
VLT Momentum fired long-term BUY signals at the end of July on the Russell 2000, MSCI World Index and EAFE - and more signals could be coming…
Time For A Breather
The Major Trend Index has been bullish throughout 2012, and the S&P 500 has delivered a total return of +12% through early August. Yet few managers have managed to match or exceed that benchmark, to do so, they would have had to be “fully invested and maximum defensive.”
An “Old” Bull Market… That Should Get “Older”
The bull market is increasingly showing signs of advanced age, but that is only to be expected for a move that now measures 40 months off its March 2009 low.
Major Trend Bending, But Not Breaking...
The April/May swoon (an S&P 500 loss of -9.9%) has been accompanied by significant deterioration in our Major Trend Index. But the latest reading (data through June 1st) stayed positive, and our best guess is that it will hold firm.
Major Trend Index Still Positive: Maintain Aggressive Equity Positions
The current ratio remains healthy, and we believe the equity markets will move higher in the coming weeks.
Trying To Forget May 2011 (...and May 2010)
Trying to forget the April tops of the past two years appears to be difficult for many as sentiment measures remain relatively dismal (which is a stock market positive). What insight can we gain from this?
Major Trend Index: Huge Bullish Improvement
Major Trend Index posted an impressive jump to even higher ground during January, and the most recent bullish reading lands at 1.54 versus the reading of 1.12 recorded at the end of December.
Are We Bullish Enough?
A response to why we are not yet committing to maximum 70% equity exposure in our tactical strategies.
New Year’s Surprise: Turning More Bullish
Major Trend Index improves to positive and Dow Theory Says “Buy”!
Major Trend Index: Deteriorates To Neutral
Major Trend Index fell to Neutral in late November. Net equity exposure reduced to 51% in Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios.
Major Trend Index (MTI) Goes Negative: Get Defensive
Major Trend Index fell to Negative at beginning of August. Assumption is that we are now in the beginning of a cyclical bear market that may produce a 20%-25% loss within the next six months or so.
“Just Another” Summer Correction
After annual summer correction re-run, we believe the market swoon is over, having produced a garden variety correction of -7.2%.
Mutual Fund Outflow Played Significant Role In MTI Deterioration
Mutual fund outflow played significant role in Major Trend deterioration. There have been about 6 1/2 months where the four week average has shown net inflow to U.S. equity funds, but outflow is now accelerating as three of last four weeks have seen net outflow.
MTI Goes Neutral; Next Few Weeks Critical
For now, net equity exposure in both the Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios will remain around 60%, as we wait to see what happens to this analysis in coming weeks.
Assessing Stock Market Valuation Tools: Which Work—And Which Don’t?
“Of Special Interest” this month evaluates several stock market valuation techniques. Newfangled valuation techniques do not always lead to better results.
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