Major Trend Index
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index improved somewhat in September but remains in negative territory. The strong September down move was no surprise, it appears that a major cyclical market top is in progress. Portfolio “Insurance” played a significant role in the September decline and it could play the reverse roll in a future market rally.
Major Trend Index Remains Negative
Realizing no one really cares much for wet blankets, I am reluctant to report that our Major Trend Index remains negative. The continued negative status leads to the conclusion that the stock market is in the process of forming a broad distribution top.
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index slid to negative status in mid-June and currently remains in negative territory. It appears a cyclical bear market is underway. A typical bear market is down 24%-28%. A very cautious attitude is warranted and any further strength in the market is best viewed as an opportunity to become more defensive.
Major Trend Index Remains Negative
The Major Trend Index slid to negative status in mid-June and currently remains in negative territory. It appears a cyclical bear market may be in prospect.
What Happened to the Correction?
The Major Trend Index now reads “Neutral.” This 25-year-old composite index says the evidence is now evenly divided between bull and bear. Thus, at this point our best advice is to stand pat in terms of equity exposure.
Caution Light Still On
The work continues to indicate the stock market should be approached with a great deal of caution. I think we must at least entertain the possibility that the cyclical bull market is in the 8th or 9th inning.
Inside the Stock Market
Our second Interim Memo of 1986 was sent out in the third week in March saying, “EARLY WARNING WORK SAYS, ‘WATCH OUT!’” Nothing has occurred in the last two weeks to moderate that warning.
Inside the Stock Market
A few “experts” who haven’t learned about percentages yet called the February surge “unprecedented,” the largest monthly move in history. Well it was hardly that, but it was a very strong market.
Inside the Stock Market
We think the cyclical bull market is still on track even though our Major Trend Index did drift down into Neutral territory in the last two weeks of December. An Interim Update concerning this will be sent out January 9 when the first calculation of the new year is made. We suspect the Index has moved back up into Positive territory this first week of 1984.
Inside the Stock Market
As of July 30, the Major Trend Index was marginally Positive, but the Early Warning work deteriorated to a Neutral status. And currently the stock market is very seriously threatening to trigger the Fail/Safe mechanism.
Flying by The Instruments: Major Trend Index, Fail/Safe and All That Jazz
Leuthold Group “Interim Memos” are usually unusual, perhaps three or four per year. But, in the last month, two were sent. We know this has produced some confusion with clients. Herein, an attempt will be made to better explain this publication's current attitude. And, for readers interested in the market trend analytical disciplines, some questions will be answered.
The Major Trend: Still a Bull
Down more than expected in May but the Major Trend Index remains decisively bullish. Early Warning Index at +10, -3, combined with sentiment and momentum work leads to a conclusion that current decline may be about over, with market rallying again later in June. Advise accumulation.
Inside the Stock Market
The stock market looks great. The Major Trend Index continues to substantiate the new cyclical bull market case. The Early Warning Index of market tops is a cool and comfortable +13, -3.
Birth of the Bull
The stock market appears to have made a cyclical bear market low. The Early Warning Index of market bottoms, which turned Positive last issue (Feb. 26) has been confirmed by a move from Neutral to Positive by Major Trend Index. Equity earmarked funds should be put to work now.
The End Is in Sight. That Is Good.
The stock market is in the process of making a cyclical bear market low. The Early Warning Index for market bottoms has turned Positive. The Major Trend Index is Neutral. It is time to start buying stocks again with cash reserves but hold long bond positions for now.
Inside the Stock Market
Still a super cycle bull market, but cyclical uptrend in question. Major Trend Index still positive but has slipped badly. Early Warning Index turned Negative Dec. 21…Caution!
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