Major Trend Index

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On Monday March 2nd, our weight of the evidence approach used to assess the longer term status of the stock market, slipped into "neutral" territory.

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As I recall, at one time I checked out the accuracy of this stock market folklore and it seemed to work pretty well. I think it will prove true again in 1991.

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As this publication projected, the stock market in 1991 made it through October without being blitzed, sacked, or otherwise traumatized. It turned out to be a pretty dull month with an upside tilt.

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September was a dull narrowly mixed month (best sector +6%, worst sector -6%). But as a whole, the third quarter of 1991 was not bad.

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If you had been vacationing on an island with no communication during the last two weeks of August, you’d think from the month to month statistics that August 1991 was a big late summer yawn.

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In July, the stock and bond markets pretty much moved in lock step and recovered what June gave away. Secondary stocks did not as a class fare quite so well.

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The second quarter of 1991 is history. While the market averages ended the second quarter about where they began, our Major Trend Index has lost quite a bit of ground in the last three months.

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The stars of May, at least the last half of the month, were the stocks and groups most sensitive to the business cycle.

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In April, the media staged a Dow Jones 3000 celebration, but the stock market didn’t. After the April 17 close of 3004, the DJIA beat a hasty retreat with the S&P 500 following suit. By the end of April, the post 3000 decline took the market averages back down to where they started the month.

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The S&P 500 and DJIA stalled in March, with a rebound in the last week of the month providing the modest 1%-2% gains. Among The Leuthold Group’s 62 equity sectors, 40 (65%) beat the S&P in March. Yes, it was another good month for active managers.

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The Leuthold Group Major Trend Index has improved 543 points from a month ago, with four of the five broad categories of analytical tools firmly in the bullish camp.

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We now expect stocks to move considerably higher. Based on our Intrinsic Value studies, the S&P 500 has room to move into the 400-420 zone, the DJIA to 3300-3600. These levels represent gains from current levels of 20%-30%. Secondary stocks are expected to do even better than this.

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I know at least some readers are even now wanting to ask questions, similar to the following. So let me get the jump on you.

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The most recent Major Trend Index sell signal, was transmitted to clients on Halloween 1989. Here in December 1990, this work is still negative, although significantly improved from a few months ago. But this work continues to indicate this is still a bear market.

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This issue marks the first anniversary of the most recent Major Trend Index sell signal, transmitted to clients on Halloween 1989. Here in October 1990, this work has improved significantly from a month ago.

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If you thought the third quarter of 1990 was bad in the U.S. stock market, think of those poor fellas in Tokyo. Of course if your universe is secondary stocks, it was worse than that.

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In terms of amplitude, the bear market could be about half over. Typical cyclical bear markets decline 25%-30%. This is not a prediction, only the profile of a typical bear market decline. The current version may decline more or it may decline less.

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Our Major Trend Index sell signal on October 30 may not have been premature, at least not in terms of most stocks. Think of it this way: We did give you plenty of time to get out.

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The Major Trend Index shifted back down into negative territory on July 2. It is also worth noting that our Early Warning Index of intermediate tops turned negative on June 25 and remains negative. Thus, as of today, we still remain cautious and defensive in terms of the stock market.

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