Major Trend Index
Did You Catch an LBO Target?
Even considering the LBO mania and the market’s contracting breadth, I still think the stock market is basically healthy. While a 5%-10% post-election correction is now expected, our Major Trend Index remains comfortably in positive territory.
Bullish Conviction Increases
From mid-July through mid-September, the status of our Major Trend Index has been cause for some concern. However, during the last two weeks this work has improved significantly.
Major Trend Index Neutral, But Rally Expected
A significant intermediate term stock market rally may soon be getting underway. As of our August 29th calculation, the Early Warning Index of intermediate bottoms gave a Buy signal. The response of our Major Trend Index in this expected rally is now critical.
Market Deterioration in July
The stock market in July was a dull listless affair....at least until the last two days of the month. However, at this point, even this rally has not been impressive. Not much breadth and not much conviction.
Still Not Many Charging Bulls Around
Perhaps the healthiest thing of all about June in Wall Street was that nobody got very excited about it. The bearish contingent has backed off a bit, but I sure don’t see many charging bulls...not even very many sauntering bulls.
April: A Good Month If You Like to Watch the Paint Dry
How dull can a market get? In April, nobody wanted to buy stocks and nobody wanted to sell, at least nobody but the program gang and dividend passers.
Back on Track
After one week of a “neutral” reading in March, our Major Trend Index returned to positive territory the following week. I continue to think a 15%-20% move in popular measures is a good possibility in the next six to nine months.
Yes, It Is True…
Our Major Trend Index has turned positive for the first time in almost a year. We expect a 15%-20% (best guess) move in S&P and DJIA. Secondary stocks should do even better.
Well…November Was Better Than October
The cyclical bear market appears to be bottoming, but that is only an opinion. Although improved, the Major Trend Index remains negative. Thus, we remain very cautious. We respect the numbers more than our opinion.
Has the Market Hit Bottom?
The Major Trend Index still negative but improved last week. I doubt that the market has recorded its bear market low, but I do think we are getting close.
A “New Era” Version of the Major Trend Index?
Our published Major Trend Index has been registering negative readings since spring. But what happens if we remove the Intrinsic Value measures from the Index?
Major Trend Index Improves, But….
Our broad-based measure of the stock market’s wellbeing improved in June, gaining some 500+ points. However, this work still remains decidedly negative on balance.
Indicators Continue to Deteriorate
Our composite Major Trend Index has continued to deteriorate and is decidedly negative. It is no longer just the Intrinsic Value measures that are warning us of trouble ahead.
“April Must Have Been Dull”
When the closing bell sounded on April 30, the market averages were down very little from the month before. To the casual observer, it might appear to have been a dull quiet month. But to those on the floor, in front of a quotron, or even reading the daily financial pages, it was anything but.
More Cautious
A month ago, this publication recommended clients start moving toward a defensive posture. Our cautious stance toward the stock market is essentially unchanged from last month. If anything, we have become more cautious.
Getting Defensive……Right Now
Our Major Trend Index, after remaining neutral for all of February, shifted into negative territory with the March 2 calculation. Immediate defensive action is being taken in our two asset allocation models.
A Really BIG Month
In January, our Major Trend Index, employed to assess the overall health of the stock market, has jumped around like some short-term oscillator.
1987 Starts With A Bang
Even after the excitement of early January, it still looks like a major cyclical bull market top is in progress.
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index deteriorated some and remains negative, as it has since mid-June. Major cyclical bull market top in progress. Shorter term work (Early Warning Index) rendered a “sell” signal on Nov. 21, after giving a “buy” signal on Sept. 15. The Bears may have Christmas.
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index improved slightly but remains negative, as it has since mid June. The October rally was no surprise and could carry farther, momentarily making new highs in DJIA and S&P 500 (but not broader measures). A major cyclical bull market top in progress. Watch out. View rally as selling opportunity.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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