Major Trend Index
Still Watching the Bull Market Go By Us
Who's leading the bull market charge? Unsophisticated investors?
Is It 1987 OR A “New Era”?
It could be different this time...For a while. Equities at 24%—below normal minimums... Valuations still look excessive...Major Trend still negative. Market still going up.
What Is Wrong with the Major Trend Index: Some Current Thoughts
At this point, it’s quite disappointing as to how the Major Trend Index work has functioned, especially in the past several months. It appears that too much lead time may have crept into the overall discipline.
Leuthold Major Trend Guide Malfunctioning?
Equities now at 24%—below normal minimums. Valuations still look excessive. Major Trend improved, but still negative. Is it 1987 revisited, or a “new era”? It could be different this time, for a while.
Reducing Equities Below Normal Minimum
Reducing equities below normal minimum for the first time since the summer of 1987. Intrinsic Value work is now quite overvalued and approaching 1987 peak valuations. However, a 1987 type crash is not expected.
Stock Market Hits New Highs, But Major Trend Is Still Negative
Greenspan's comments about the possibility of lower short term rates and orchestrating a soft landing ignited the bond market and stocks followed suit, with several market indices hitting new highs.
Major Trend Index Still Negative
The basic message is unchanged since early March 1994.
Major Trend Index Remains Negative
Bond market decline may be in final stages, but stock market can still fall 25%, even if bonds stabilize in coming months.
Major Trend Deteriorates In September, Remains Negative
Major Trend Index deteriorated by 591 points in September, and remains quite decisively in negative territory. We continue to approach equity investing with a great deal of caution, operating in a bear market mode.
Major Trend Index Improved, But Still Negative
It still looks like a bear market to us or, at minimum, an old bull market that is topping out.
Major Trend Index Still Negative….But July Market Action Improved
Major Trend remains in negative territory but market action (both stocks and bonds) improved in July. Short term, both stocks and bonds may continue to rally.
Major Trend Index Remains Negative
Major Trend moves deeper into negative territory...Commodity Diffusion Index move above 70% does not inspire us either.
1994: A Dull Summer?
Downside equity market risk viewed as significant: still believe 90% probability we are in early stages of a bear market. Could be a dull summer?
Major Trend Index Still Says Bear
Major Trend still in "negative" territory and continues to deteriorate. Downside equity market risk viewed as significant.
Major Trend Index Even More Negative
Major Trend Index turned "negative" March 8 and has continued to deteriorate.
Major Trend Index Fades to Neutral
Major Trend Index drops back to "neutral" territory. Don't jump the gun and assume the Index will fall to "negative".
Major Trend Index Improves Significantly In January
Major Trend Index moved now comfortably back in positive territory. 96 point decline February 4th is probably setting up a good tactical buying opportunity.
Major Trend Index Remains Neutral
The U.S. stock market environment seems to be pretty much a continuation of the 1993 frolics, big new supply and continued institutional buying as professionals invest new cash flow from individual investors who don't know that Wall Street can be a two way street.
Major Trend Index Slips To Neutral
Yes, there are more negative points than positive points, but the margin is not enough to be considered a sell signal. Don’t jump the gun.
Slight Deterioration, But Major Trend Index Still Positive
As of October 29 the Major Trend had deteriorated to a level of 1.10. Despite this small deterioration, the Major Trend remains in positive ground, so both models will continue to maintain their more aggressive equity exposure.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
