Major Trend Index
MTI Recap: Small Loss During June
We sense that the lack of volatility in the stock market in recent months is beginning to unnerve even the bulls, who seem increasingly compelled to do something in response to the relentless new highs.
Small Dip But Still Bullish
The Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category lost -25 points on the week, triggered by a shift in a momentum sub-model that has been very volatile in the past several weeks.
MTI Rebounds From Mid-Month Dip
After sinking to a four-month low of 1.10 mid-month, the MTI rallied in the final two weeks of May to close the month at 1.16—unchanged from the reading four weeks earlier.
Sun Rises In The East; MTI Remains Bullish
The Major Trend Index remained bullish throughout the month of April, and closed the week of May 2nd at a moderate 1.16—up 0.01 from four weeks earlier.
Major Trend Index Pulls Back From Multi-Month High; Still Bullish
The Major Trend Index closed the week of April 4th at 1.15, down from a five-month high of 1.21 recorded at the end of February.
Major Trend Closes February At Five-Month High Of 1.21
For the final week of February, the Major Trend Index closed at a five-month high of 1.21, up sharply from 1.09 at the end of January. While this bull market’s duration (five years) and magnitude (S&P gain of +175%) have exceeded our most optimistic expectations, the MTI and its related disciplines continue supporting our above-average exposure to equities in tactical accounts.
Major Trend Index Slips But Stays Positive
The Major Trend Index fell 0.03 to 1.12 in the week ended January 17th, a reading that’s on the low end of the tight trading range it’s occupied over the last six months.
Major Trend Index Bullish At 1.13
The Major Trend Index continues levitating in moderately bullish territory, closing the week of January 3rd at 1.13. This reading was down 0.02 from the 1.15 recorded in the final weekly reading for November. Net equity exposure in both the Core and Global Portfolios remains around 64%.
MTI Bullish At 1.15
The Major Trend Index saw little net change last month, dropping 0.02 to 1.15 over the four weeks ended November 29th.
MTI Remains Bullish; Little Changed in October
The Major Trend Index remained within a fairly narrow, bullish band throughout October, and closed the week ended November 1st at 1.17. This is compared with a final September reading of 1.16.
Major Trend Rises To 1.16
The Major Trend Index rose 0.01 to 1.16 in the week ended October 18th, with gains in the technical category offseting losses in the four other indicator groupings. In line with this work, we continue to target above-average net equity exposure of 60% in both the Core and Global Funds.
Major Trend Rises To 1.15
The Major Trend Index rose 0.03 to 1.15 in the week ended October 11th, a bullish reading that continues supporting our above-average commitments to the stock market.
Major Trend Stays Positive But Slips Again To 1.12
The Major Trend Index fell to 1.12 in the week ended October 4th, down 0.04 for the week and down 0.09 from two weeks earlier. However, we do not expect to make significant changes to net equity exposure.
Major Trend Ticks Up A Bit In September
The Major Trend Index rose 0.04 to 1.16 during the month of September, remaining in a range we consider moderately bullish.
Major Trend Positive But Slips To 1.16
The Major Trend Index declined 0.05 to 1.16 in the week ended September 27th, but it remains a safe distance above its 0.95-1.05 neutral zone.
Major Trend Index Rises To 1.21
Last week’s surge to new bull market highs had a more muted impact than we expected on the Major Trend Index.
Major Trend Index - September 19, 2013
The Major Trend Index rose a solid 0.08 to 1.20 in the week ending September 13, with three of the five indicator categories recording gains. Stock markets that are “in gear” are generally not at risk of making an imminent cyclical peak.
Major Trend In A “Mildly Bullish” Holding Pattern
The Major Trend Index changed little in the face of August’s market weakness, closing the first week of September at a mildly bullish 1.12. During the month there were no changes to the targeted net equity exposure of 60% in the Core and Global Funds.
Bulled Over
The Major Trend Index has experienced a bout of instability since April, twice retreating to its Neutral zone before the bull market promptly overrode both signals.
Major Trend Index - August 2013
As discussed last month, the Major Trend Index has experienced a bout of volatility in 2013 that is not uncommon for a late-stage cyclical bull market. Since April, the MTI has twice dipped to the Neutral zone, but both moves were ultimately aborted as the stock market moved to new cyclical highs.
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