Major Trend Index
Major Trend Moves To Neutral, But Not All Hope For The Bulls Is Lost
Deteriorating Technicals drove the move to Neutral, but a new positive reading in the Attitudinal category gives some hope to the bulls.
Summer Doldrums?
Give those who’ve advised investors to “Sell In May” over the years some credit: they’ve never been too specific.
Ruminations On The Major Trend Index
There are many reasons to think the MTI’s cautionary message should be taken seriously.
MTI Slips To Neutral… Now What?
While we don’t know which direction it will head next, we break down a few of the MTI categories and present some of our observations.
Major Trend Index Still Positive: Maintain Aggressive Equity Positions
The current ratio remains healthy, and we believe the equity markets will move higher in the coming weeks.
Reading The Tea Leaves The Stock Market One Year Ago...vs. Today
A comparison of today’s market conditions compared to one year ago. We look at valuations, sentiment, group leadership and Major Trend categories.
Volatility 2000 Continues
Modifications to Major Trend Index improve reading, but MTI is still very negative.
A December To Remember
Hot market in December with many tech groups up 20%+ and one-fourth of Leuthold’s groups posting double digit gains...as Y2K fears diminished, the market momentum built.
November No Turkey For Tech
Leuthold broad tech sector up 17% in November! But, only three of our other nine broad sectors managed decent gains for the month. Watch January, Fed could tighten in a hurry and raise rates.
November May Be A Turkey
Halloween belongs to the bulls, but November could be a turkey....Major Trend Index turned more negative in October. Steve gives his reasons for shorting.
Revenge of the Nerds
I don’t ever recall seeing a month with such a sudden and dramatic change in market character, at least not in terms of sector and group leadership.
Bullish...At Least for a While
The public is back as evidenced by strong mutual fund cash inflows. Seasonally strong Q1 mutual fund inflows should push the DJIA above 10,000. Traditional “January Effect” may be absent again in 1999, as it has previous four years.
Bear Market Rally or Bull Market?
Major Trend Index improved to Neutral but not offering any guidance as to whether this is a bear market rally or a bull market.
September: The Best Month of a Terrible Quarter
September the best month of a terrible quarter. October could present some opportunities.. This could be an exceptional bounce year. Major Trend remains Negative. Recommended strategy: Maintain maximum allowable defensive equity.
August Was Terrible
August’s decline was the largest monthly decline since October 1987. Recommended Client Strategy: maintain most defensive equity stance available - if cash is not an option, concentrate in defensive equity sectors.
Major Trend Back to Negative
Major Trend back to Negative...Both Asset Allocation Portfolios shifted to their most defensive posture ever. Steve's judgements and opinions on major stock market positives and negatives.
Should We Believe It This Time?
On June 22, clients received an Interim Memo noting that our composite Major Trend Index had slipped to Negative status. The subsequent calculation lost a few more points and remains marginally negative.
The Not So Merry Month of May
May was malicious for most portfolio managers. Despite just modest declines for the S&P 500 and DJIA, 80% of Leuthold sectors were down more.
The February Sweet Spot
Major Trend Index turned Positive in early February...Expect market to move higher over next few months as long as Main Street keeps fueling Wall Street.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
