Major Trend Index
Major Trend Index Edges Into Positive Territory
Are you surprised? We certainly were. The Major Trend Index has moved slightly above the neutral no man's land, but not by much.
Client Questions Regarding Major Trend Index
Questions about the recent reversal in status of The Leuthold Group's Major Trend Index.
Bored and Still Cautious
July has been proclaimed the most boring month by The Boring Institute. From a stock market standpoint, I think June should have been so designated.
Sticking With The Disciplines: Caution
Our disciplines don't currently provide much latitude, and the disciplines have usually proven to be better than the instincts. Thus, this publication's attitude remains cautious.
Long Term Message Remains: Caution
As of the May 3 tabulation of the Major Trend Index, the caution flag remains flying.
Major Trend Index More Negative
The Major Trend Index deteriorated in March. This calculation was done prior to the Phillip Morris debacle. I'm rather sure the upcoming April 5 calculation will not be any better.
Sorry, Major Trend Index Shifts Back To "Negative"
After ten weeks of borderline "Neutral” readings, our weight of the evidence Major Trend Index shifted back down into the "NEGATIVE" zone with the March 1 calculation. So what did the market do the next day? It scored a 45 point gain in the DJIA, with the other market averages up a little more than 1%. At this point, with the Index back in "Negative” territory, we will probably do more defensive selling if this new surge carries significantly higher.
Major Trend Index Remains Neutral
Close only counts in horseshoes. Our weight of the evidence approach to evaluating the health of the U.S. stock market improved in January, but did not break out of its six week "Neutral" range
Inside The Stock Market
On December 21, the Major Trend Index moved into "neutral" territory.
The Message Is “Be Cautious”
The most recent calculation of the Major Trend Index (Nov. 30) continues to raise the danger/caution flag for the U.S. equity market. The U.S. stock market still appears vulnerable to the extent of a 25%-30% decline in the popular averages.
Major Trend Index Improved, But Still Negative
The most recent calculation of the Major Trend Index (Nov. 2) shows improvement from a month ago, but remains NEGATIVE on balance. Thus, we continue to advocate a high level of caution toward the U.S. stock market.
Questions Clients Are Asking
Since the Milwaukee poll taken in early October, it appears that optimism has continued to build. This opinion is supported by the kinds of questions we are now fielding from clients.
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
The message remains the same: The U.S. stock market is vulnerable and may be on the verge of playing “catch up” with the declines that have already taken place in foreign markets.
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
The market averages have not gone down much since this work shifted to negative status, but a lot of stocks have.
For Those Who Want To Dig Deeper: The Major Trend Index
The Major Trend Index is really the backbone of our stock market analysis at The Leuthold Group. Prompted by a number of client questions in recent months, Andy Engel has broken apart the Major Trend Index and analyzed each of the five broad categories separately.
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
Our Major Trend Index inched up in late July, but remained decidedly in negative territory. Following the dictates of our disciplined weight of the evidence approach, we remain very cautious toward the U.S. equity market.
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
With the Major Trend Index still negative, we remain cowards as far as the U.S. equity market is concerned. It probably takes a brave (or foolish) investor to aggressively buy stocks at current valuation levels with the economic expansion now in doubt.
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
The Major Trend Index reading continued to deteriorate in May. Following the dictates of our disciplined weight of the evidence approach, we remain very cautious toward the U.S. equity market.
Major Trend Index Shifts to “Negative” In April
On Monday April 6th, The Leuthold Group’s Major Trend Index downshifted from “neutral” status to “negative” status. The prudent course is a move to the sidelines, becoming a spectator for a while.
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