Interest Rates
Economic Outlook
Still view long rates as potentially vulnerable to strong economy and unexpected inflation.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. Boosting bond market target yields based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. CPI inflation could continue to surprise on the upside; the economy never did hit a soft patch; and Fed may still make several more rate hikes.
View From The North Country
Carnage and suffering in wake of Hurricane Katrina is tragic and almost unbelievable. However, investment implications may not be as negative as many are portraying.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. May deficit report encouraging.
Stock Market Performance After Fed Rate Hikes
Stock market performance over a variety of time frames after the rate hikes.
View From The North Country
A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2005.
Have Falling Long Term Rates Ever Contributed To A Flattening Yield Curve Before?
Jim Floyd looks at the history of flattening yield curves. It is very rare for short rates to be rising with long rates coming down, which is what we are seeing in the current environment.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion will reach four years on 9/30/2005. Since WWII, the average expansion has lasted 57 months.
Economic Outlook
Today, the yield curve has flattened but has not yet inverted. The economy may be in for a soft patch, but there are no signs of recession yet.
Economic Outlook
The U.S. deficit was not a bond market negative in 2004, but continuing long term deficits will become a negative.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Since WWII, the average expansion has lasted 57 months.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Recession could possibly be getting underway by end of 2005.
Economic Outlook
Lower than expected 2004 budget deficit was a short term bond market positive, but longer term deficits are a negative.
Economic Outlook
Deficit narrowing. Last three months’ (including first month of fiscal 2005) receipts remarkably strong, while outlays have declined.
The Impact Of Increasing Interest Rates By The Fed
Historically, the first few increases do not have an adverse impact on the stock market on a longer term basis (6 to 12 months). However, stocks do tend to take a hit after the fourth or fifth rate hike on a 6 to 12 month time horizon.
Answering Client Questions
Jim Floyd devotes several pages of “Inside The Stock Market” to answer client questions. Included are questions about reported versus operating earning, the impact of inflation on small cap stocks, and our rationale behind our interest rate target among others.
Economic Outlook
Everyday consumers must find it difficult to believe twelve month inflation is just 2.5% (CPI-U), especially when filling up their gas tanks and their grocery carts.
Economic Outlook
Falling interest rates and declining oil prices should bolster consumer spending and hopefully get us past the current economic soft spot.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
