Interest Rates

Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.

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Treasury zero bonds are becoming increasingly attractive for retirement accounts and other investors who want to know with absolute certainty how much they are going to get and when they will get it. Also, preliminary Leuthold Group economic and market projections for 1995.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis.

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It still looks like a bear market to us or, at minimum, an old bull market that is topping out.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but rally seems underway.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative.

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U.S. corporations must pay almost 300 basis points more to borrow in U.S. dollars than in Swiss francs. Why is there such a difference?

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative, but market now in 7.50%-8.00% accumulation zone. Yield curve is flattening out.

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Downside equity market risk viewed as significant: still believe 90% probability we are in early stages of a bear market. Could be a dull summer?

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How Bush and the boys rescued the banks without busting the FDIC, fiscal responsibility in the 1993 Congress is examined and what the recent surge in commodity inflation means.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative, but market now in 7.50%-8.00% accumulation zone. Yield curve looks like it may be flattening out.

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Streisand concert tickets got more bids than treasuries in late March and the first day of April. It was a painful period for both bond and stock investors.

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At this point, the bond market outlook is still viewed as negative, it was also negative last month. The upside seems minimal over the next 6-12 months.

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Major Trend Index drops back to "neutral" territory. Don't jump the gun and assume the Index will fall to "negative".

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative for bond market.

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Weight of the evidence now mildly negative on bond market.

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Bond market bulls experienced a brief chill in mid-October. After starting the month on a strong note, most bond categories retreated for the remainder of the month as better economic news began to trickle in.

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Almost all bond sectors were unchanged or up very slightly in September. The month started out strongly following weak economic news and a declining PPI. However, a higher than expected CPI, turmoil in Mother Russia, a “pop” in oil prices and even some positive economic reports pushed most bond prices lower as the month progressed.

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The bond market's wish list was fulfilled in August. Inflation readings came in below expectations, economic signals continued to point towards sluggish growth and signs of deficit reduction progress surfaced once again.

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Are you surprised? We certainly were. The Major Trend Index has moved slightly above the neutral no man's land, but not by much.

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