Interest Rates
A December To Remember
Hot market in December with many tech groups up 20%+ and one-fourth of Leuthold’s groups posting double digit gains...as Y2K fears diminished, the market momentum built.
Bond Market Summary
Rising stocks and better economic news could increase chance of third Fed boost near term.
Bond Market Summary
Last month’s 25 basis point bump-up by Fed will not be the last. More tightening seems likely.
Bond Market Summary
Recent 25 basis point bump-up by Fed will not be the last. More tightening seems likely but T-bonds now look to be in the high end of a buying zone.
Bond Market Summary
Strong likelihood the Fed will tighten in next few months, but today’s market rates may already factor in future 25-50 basis point Fed bump up in short rates.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
Steve’s personal judgements and opinions incorporating observations, experience and gut feelings, going beyond the quantitative aspects of the Major Trend Index disciplines.
Major Trend Back to Negative
Major Trend back to Negative...Both Asset Allocation Portfolios shifted to their most defensive posture ever. Steve's judgements and opinions on major stock market positives and negatives.
Should We Believe It This Time?
On June 22, clients received an Interim Memo noting that our composite Major Trend Index had slipped to Negative status. The subsequent calculation lost a few more points and remains marginally negative.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them.
What Is The Year End Flat Yield Curve Telling Us?
The U.S. yield curve could mildly invert in 1998, even with a passive Fed.
Three Distinct Economic Periods
Yield curve typically inverted about 62% of the time.
What Is Flat Yield Curve Telling Us?
Long term rates are "normally" higher than short term rates to compensate investors for the likely risk that inflation will undermine the value of their bonds.
Bond Market Summary
Long treasuries are still well above the underlying interest rate (real rate of 4%-5%). The inflation outlook remains tame.
Bond Market Summary
Among the industrial nations, U.S. bond market offers highest yields, a reversal from earlier in the decade. Inflation outlook positive.
Bond Market Summary
Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow, inflation should remain under control, and corporate earnings momentum should gradually fade.
What Has Changed Since February 2, 1996?
Comparison between February 2, 1996 Major Trend (when we last went positive) and today’s calculation shows the shift primarily driven by Economic/Monetary/Inflation (higher interest rates), and by the Supply/Demand category.
Bond Market Summary
Bond market was punished again in March by continued (forced?) hedge fund selling and unexpected stronger economic signals casting doubts on further Fed easing. Rising labor costs and higher energy and grain prices provided reasons for worry.
Bond Market Summary
Bond market rally continued in December. Government shutdown curtailed information flow, but economy still looks lame and inflation tame. Investors forced to focus on Washington's political farce.
View from the North Country
Thermal pollution time…Steve Leuthold’s 1996 views (and 1995 reviews) on stocks, interest rates, economy, dollar, deficit, earnings, alternative investment areas and, yes, the Super Bowl.
Worth Noting
“Polling the pros” in April, adjusting stock market dividend yields for “buybacks”, mutual fund flows, looking beneath the Finished Goods PPI, and the possibility of rising inflation and interest rates.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
