Interest Rates
Bond Market Summary
Bond Market weakness is adjustment to end of Fed easing cycle.
View From The North Country
Leuthold’s New Year Predictions for 2002 and a review of last year’s predictions.
Bond Market Summary
Bond market adjusting to end of Fed easing cycle, expected 2002 economic recovery and corporate rush to lock in lower borrowing costs.
Bond Market Summary
Expect further Fed cuts in short rates, but this could do more harm than good.
After The Rebound: Increased Caution
Market shrugged off bad news; but rally from the lows is almost a text book example of a bear market rally. Plus, Steve's current outlook regarding the Economy, Earnings, Inflation, and Interest Rates.
Bond Market Summary
Yield curve has risen dramatically in recent weeks, probably forecasting economic recovery ahead (6-12 months?), but also reflecting deteriorating budget surplus situation.
Post Attack
Unlike most past market crises, a post-crisis rally did not immediately follow the September 11th Attack. October Expectations: The passage of time is beginning to moderate Wall Street’s debilitating pain. I think the stock market rebound rally could be about to get underway in earnest.
Bond Market Summary
Economy may already be halfway or more through recession. GDP growth still barely positive, but revisions could change that. Tech bust magnitude and breadth of Q2 profit plunge spell recession.
Bond Market Summary
GDP growth still barely positive, but trend has been sharply lower. May already be halfway through a recession. Tech bust and Q2 profit decline additionally support this view.
Bond Market Summary
Economy may already be halfway through a recession, but expect economic uptick by early 2002. Fed near end of easing.
Bond Market Summary
Expect Q2 and Q3 GDP to weaken due to business cost cutting, lagging global economy and less robust consumer spending. But, tax rebate, the Fed, and money supply growth should spawn new economic expansion by early 2002.
Summer Market Hot?…..Or Not?
Statistically the summer rally is mostly fiction, historically producing average or slightly below average stock market performance….but don’t plan a three month vacation yet!
Be A Buyer, Not A Seller
Stock selection in a recession is a different ball game! A look at some of the rules and the traps when investing during a recession. The Bullish Message Of Breadth: Demonstration of how divergences between the S&P 500 and the A/D Lines have denoted market tops and market strength.
Have Increased Equity Exposure
Our Aggressive Stance On Equity Exposure: Fed cuts, money supply expansion, tax cut prospects, fund inflow, and market internals.….Not all worries have gone away, however. This bear market has not followed what can be thought of as a traditional course.
2001: A Wild Beginning
Two trading days into 2001, and the first day delivered the second-worst-ever, first day trading loss in the S&P 500 (the worst-ever being the first day of 1932!). Day Two: A surprise, 50 basis point Fed rate cut, brought an upside explosion.
Bond Market Summary
U.S. economy losing momentum, global economy slowing more…..Increasing odds of recession in 2001, as banks tighten credit, energy costs remain high, and technology falters.
View From The North Country
Leuthold’s current point of view and outlook regarding the Economy, Interest Rates, Inflation, and Earnings.
Bond Market Summary
· Still expect one more rate hike due to rekindling of stock market enthusiasm, prospects of accelerating inflation, and reported wage inflation numbers understated.
Reprint Of Early April Conference Call
Special reprint of Steve Leuthold, Byron Wien and Charley Maxwell conference call from early April.
Inflation & Interest Rates
Favorite stock groups now “inflation and interest rate proof”?
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